If you invest in networking, you must read this transcript. Alan Weckel provides a tour de force in discussing switch market growth, events in China, the slowdown in cloud capex, the transition to 400g, and wireless adoption.
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Rodney Brooks is a robotics entrepreneur. He is the Panasonic Professor of Robotics (emeritus) at MIT and founder of Rethink Robotics as well as iRobot Corp. In his blog , he says that if we can’t design autonomous vehicles, then artificial general intelligence (AGI) is a long ways off. And “if AGI is a long way off then we can not say anything sensible today about what promises or threats it might provide as we need to completely re-engineer our world long before it shows up, and when it does show up it will be in a world that we can not yet predict.”
Each month, we publish our favorite long idea stock screens. They encompass many investment styles and themes including value, growth, capital creation, cash usage, corporate actions, dividends, and financial institutions.
On May 16th, we hosted the 4th conference call of our 2019 “Pipelines Unplugged” series with Dr. Mikael Dolsten, President Worldwide Research and Development at Pfizer.
Wolfe Research's Senior Pharma analyst, Tim Anderson, hosted a “Pipelines Unplugged” webcast with Eli Lilly's Dr. Daniel Skovronsky, SVP and Chief Scientific Officer, and Jake Van Naarden, COO of Loxo Oncology (subsidiary of Eli Lilly). Topics discussed included an update on phase 3 pipeline products, bracing for change in diabetes, and what mid-stage, "next on deck" compounds LLY is most excited about.
ARGX is hosting their R&D day today (05/22/19) where they are introducing 2 new, wholly owned pipeline assets: ARGX-117 + ARGX-118
A couple months ago we published an analysis that went over why we felt ARGX-117 was a novel C2 complement inhibitor that would compete against ALXN’s complement franchise … ARGX just confirmed 117’s MOA in a PR this morning... it's indeed a C2 complement inhibitor (that will use HALO’s subQ technology + have its first in humans studies in Q120)
One and done—company thinks guide down is sufficiently conservative. A second consecutive miss on the topline—albeit only a near miss in F1Q—and a downward revision to F20 revenue guidance sent the stock down 17% in the aftermarket. Whereas the prior quarter miss mostly was due to a one-time delay in shipments, the company now recognizes a miss as part of a longer enterprise selling cycle than previously thought.
Market Size & Opportunity: B2B Market: We estimate global B2B payments to exceed $100tn with the global card-able B2B market at ~$25tn+ (~$3-$4tn U.S.). The market is estimated to be ~1-2% penetrated. MineralTree’s founder, BC Krishna believes that the low hanging fruit for card payments (growing ~20% Y/Y currently) in B2B stops at around 6-7% penetration. Accounts Payable: MineralTree sizes the accounts payable revenue opportunity at $10-$20bn while noting that only ~7-8% of businesses have automated AP systems currently.
Copper and oil may not be as close as long-time duos like Abbott & Costello, Heckle & Jeckle, Tom & Jerry, Bert & Ernie, Scooby & Shaggy, Spongebob & Patrick, or Fred and Barney, but they’re close enough to confidently say that, over time, the two tend to move in the same direction.
And that message, which is made clear in the charts below, is providing an amber flashing warning sign for oil because while it is only off -2% in May and is still “comfortably” above its own key support at $60, LME copper is down -6.6% in May and is thisclose to breaking key support. In addition, our momentum indicator in the lower chart peaked for copper in April and is working toward negative territory as momentum for oil has crested and is softening.
In short, copper and oil are good partners and the price weakness in copper is another reason for us to believe oil is a sale here.
Updating our macro and sector-specific thoughts following a sell-the-print 1Q19. Like many of our clients, this past week was one filled with ceremonies, commencement speakers, and renewed optimism as graduates at every level persevered through finals, put painful learning behind, and began to look forward to a better days ahead (congrats to the GW Sciences & Penn Law classes of ’19). Similarly, this past week largely closed the book on a painful 1Q19 earnings for OFS, one in which E&P discipline and risk-off market forces drove capital rotation out of the sector (following YTD OP of broader energy). Better days are ahead for OFS, simply on the premise that FY19 will mark the first year since ’14 that int’l upstream drives the bulk of spending growth (as OFS earnings power should improve with this capex mix-shift). The key learning from 1Q19 however, is that OFS growth, no matter the return profile, will be ill-received by a market that now demands excess cash flow be used to deleverage/returned to shareholders. FCF will be king moving forward.