This custom model shows the estimated impact tariffs will have on the Retail Softlines P&Ls.
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Use our Tariff QuikCalc Model (click here) to quickly calculate the impact to a retailer's cost, margins, earnings, and, most importantly, to determine the percent increase in prices needed to offset the tariff. We have done this work for our coverage universe, but this is only a small sample of the retailers, vendors, and manufacturers impacted. Therefore, we developed a "quick and dirty" model to give you a general sense of the impact. For the average specialty retailer, we estimate an average unit cost increase of 4.2%, which if entirely unmitigated through price increases results in an average earnings reduction of 35%. The average unit price increase necessary to offset the higher tariff is 2.1%.
PLCE beat on comp, GM, taxes, but missed big on SGA largely due to incentive comp. PLCE reported 1Q19 Adjusted EPS of $0.36 vs Cons for LPS of ($0.48). Comps came in at -4.6% vs Cons. -7.8%. Despite May QTD store comps running -20% vs +24% LY, 2Q19 guidance brackets Cons. FY19 EPS guide increased ~9% above Cons and embeds lowered 2H19 expectations, removing a hurdle for many investors.
1Q19 beat o comp, GM, taxes; missed big on SGA. PLCE reported 1Q19 Adjusted EPS of $0.36 vs Cons for LPS of ($0.48). Comps came in -4.6% vs Cons. -7.8%. Gross margin was materially better, deleveraging 30 bps vs Cons expectations for 430 bps of deleverage. Despite the Gymboree liquidation, merchandise margins actually increased (a sign of pricing recapture) due lower average unit cost and better than expected markdowns, which was directionally consistent with our "Flat" promo read for the quarter. SGA was the one huge miss, coming in $11M higher than we expected due primarily to higher incentive compensation and was offset by $10 million lower stock-based tax comp expense than we had modeled - due to the stock price being materially higher during the quarter than expected. Inventory remains a shade higher than sales. Pre-market, shares +5%.
The April reading was the fourth consecutive month at 1 or the worst score possible. In April, 50% of retailers posted a short position >15% (up from 47.8% in March). We note the percentage of retailers with a short position over 15% continues to increase month-over-month. We rank Sector Sentiment on a scale of “1” being the most negative sentiment to “10” being the most positive sentiment. The basis for the ranking is based on the number of retailers in the sector with >15% short positions.
We’ve been tracking progress throughout 1Q19 and feel comfortable enough to raise our comp and above-Cons Loss per Share (“LPS”) estimate for 1Q19. We note an earlier wind down of Gymboree website and stores (neutral/positive), a positive promo inflection from “Deeper” to “Flat” this quarter (positive), and what looks like a return to inventory discipline (positive). This is offset by likely too-high Cons for 2Q19 (we are at an LPS of $0.34 vs. Cons EPS of $0.16) and talk of potential tariffs. For our full thesis, we suggest three prior notes and webcasts: 1) 1Q19 Promo Check Update, 2) Single Best Idea note from 3/20/19 and 3) Deep(er) Dive note from 4/8/19.
Before market 5/9/19, a FY3Q19 EPS beat ($0.42 vs. Cons $0.41, of which $0.02 was from taxes), better-than-expected Kate comp, and $1B buyback authorization – all on 52-week lows that set low expectations – sent shares up 9% in an otherwise red tape with the XRT -1%. GM beat, while SGA and OM missed, and EPS was aided by better taxes and modest buyback. Elevated inventory is explainable due to shipping delays from Asia. The quarter in whole was good, not great, but prospects of Kate turn and buyback boosted investor sentiment.
Our beginning-of-year upgrade of TPR was predicated on a late spring season turn at the Kate Spade brand, stabilizing Coach Outlet, and attractive risk/reward based on valuation. However, our checks during FY3Q19 and QTD FY4Q19 have suggested that there is a delayed response to the full-price new product platform at Kate Spade, and Coach Outlet remains challenged. A delayed turn is not unusual when a brand shifts to “full-price” on new product but is hindered by liquidation of legacy product. With legacy product ~70% of sales for FY3Q19 and 30% to 40% for FY4Q19, we push out the turn to the back half of the calendar year at the earliest. We prefer to see Kate Spade turn to positive comps on healthy margins; as such, we believe focusing on EBIT margin over comp is warranted. We also note that the Coach Outlet business remains highly promotional, pressuring margin. The company will host their FY3Q19 earnings call at 8:30am ET on 5/9/19 (877-510-8087; PW: 9287715).
LULU’s analyst day was the roadmap for the company’s ongoing evolution from a powerful specialty retail brand to a wholistic mind/body lifestyle company. With much detail provided on channel, geographic, and product breakdown, we have incorporated the drivers of the company’s five-year plan into a detailed model. While our note took a bit longer to get to you, we wanted to build a model with detailed drivers by channel mix, geographic mix, and product segment mix. In doing so, we believe you’ll find that there is a level of conservatism in each of these growth avenues that gives us great comfort in over $9.00 in earnings power in 2023. We believe the only way to visualize all the moving parts that constitute growth opportunities is to model each segment of growth, and we did that for you.
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