Our WR Transport Index increased 3.9% last week, outperforming the 2.2% rise in the S&P 500. LTL (+5.5%), Rail (+4%) and TL (+3.5%) each outperformed last week, while the Forwarders (+1%) relatively underperformed. It’s been a strong start to the year with our Transport Index up 5% YTD the first few weeks of the year, outperforming the 3% rise in the S&P 500.
Search Coverage List, Models & Reports
Search Results1-10 out of 4762
JBHT reported 4Q EPS of $1.35, well below our estimate of $1.43 and Cons. of $1.50. Relative to our model, Intermodal missed our expectations by $0.06, ICS missed by $0.03 and TL missed slightly, while Dedicated remained the bright spot and beat us by $0.03. The stock fell 4%.
KSU reported adjusted 4Q EPS of $1.82, below Cons. and our estimate of $1.85. Revenue beat our model by 60bp on strong yields, but margins missed our model by 90bp. While 4Q missed slightly, KSU raised its long-term OR guidance (sub 60% in C21 vs. 60% previously) and long-term EPS guidance (mid-teens CAGR, up from low- to mid-teens previously). KSU also lowered its long-term CapEx guidance from 18% to 17% of revenue. With yet another string of positive updates, the stock rallied another 3%.
Pasted below, please find our Friday Freight note. We distribute this product via email each Friday mid-day, so clients have some freight reading material to make their weekends truly worthwhile! Your feedback is always appreciated if you have any suggestions.
KSU reported adjusted 4Q EPS of $1.82, slightly below Cons. and our estimate of $1.85. Revenue growth of 5% was 60bp better than our model but KSU’s OR of 62.4% was 90bp worse than our model. Below the line items were mixed with a $0.06 headwind from other income losses but a $0.06 tailwind from a low tax rate. Adjusted EPS excludes a $0.29 restructuring charge related to PSR initiatives.
This morning (1/17/20), JBHT reported 4Q EPS of $1.35, well below Cons. of $1.50 and our estimate of $1.43. Intermodal missed our estimate by $0.06 and ICS (brokerage) missed by $0.03, while Dedicated beat us by $0.03 and TL just slightly missed our expectations.
CSX reported 4Q EPS of $0.95 ex. a $0.04 tax gain, in line with our estimate and below Cons. of $0.97. Revenue was 130bp worse than our model on weaker yields, while margins were 90bp better than our model. CSX guided to C20 revenue of flat to -2% y/y and a 59% OR, both in line with our prior expectations.
The STB released December headcount data for the rails (U.S. operations only) mid-day today. Total headcount declined 11% y/y in December vs. -11% and -10% the prior 2 months. This is the largest y/y decline in 3.5 years. Total headcount also fell 1.3% m/m, the 13th straight sequential monthly reduction.
Shippers expect their same-store shipment volumes to increase 1.5% over the next 12 months, the lowest expectation in the past 14 quarters. That said, our survey data suggest that inventory levels are starting to normalize with fewer shippers citing higher year-over-year inventories. This seems positive to us for freight.
As part of Friday’s jobs report (1/10/20), the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that Truck employment inflected negative y/y for the first time in 34 months (Exhibit 1). Truck employment declined 3.5K sequentially, the first m/m decline in December since ’09 as employment was likely dragged down by the Celadon bankruptcy. This is another data point that indicates TL capacity is starting to exit the market. Thus, we believe the TL cycle has bottomed.
- 1 of 477
- next →