Our monthly 50+ page report details key supply, demand and pricing trends that are important for the Trucking and Truck OEM stocks.
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After the close (05/27/20), DSGX reported F1Q (ending April) adjusted EBITDA of $33.0M, above Cons. of $32M and our $30M estimate. Total sales increased 7% y/y, decelerated from +19% last quarter but 260bp better than our model, while adjusted EBITDA margins of 39.4% improved 260bp y/y and were 240bp better than our model. Cash conversion of 83% remained strong.
Our WR Transport Index surged 8.5% last week, materially outperforming the 3.2% rise in the S&P 500 and modestly outperforming the 7.4% rise in the XLI. The asset-light Forwarders (+10%) and the TLs (+9%) performed best as the micro-cap truckers – CVTI and USX – finally participated in the group’s outperformance this year, while the non-asset Forwarders (+4%) relatively lagged.
The Wolfe Industrials team hosts a webcast on Fridays at 11:00AM ET to discuss industrials and transports news and themes for the week. Presenting analysts include Scott Group (Airfreight & Surface Transportation), Hunter Keay (Airlines and Aerospace & Defense), Nigel Coe (Electrical Equipment & Multi-Industry), and Rod Lache & Dan Galves (Autos, Auto Parts, & Auto Technology).
Last week, we hosted virtual meetings with R’s CEO. Our meetings continued to focus primarily on the impact of weak used truck pricing. We sense there’s one more potential EPS cut to come related to used pricing in 2Q, but hopefully we’re then finally at the end of a multi-year downward revision cycle.
We’re updating our rail models halfway through 2Q. Volumes seem to be bottoming and are tracking better than feared for most of the rails, but we’re fine-tuning our cost and decremental margin assumptions based on company updates the past couple of weeks. Our updated 2Q estimates are now well above Cons. for CP, in line with Cons. for CNI, modestly below Cons. for CSX, UNP and KSU, and well below Cons. for NSC.
The STB released April headcount data for the rails (U.S. operations only) today. Total headcount declined 14% y/y in April vs. -12% in each of the prior 2 months. Headcount also declined 3% sequentially, the largest sequential decline in the history of our data set. But with volumes for the Big 3 U.S. rails declining 25% y/y on average, labor productivity inflected sharply negative as expected.
Our 13th Annual Virtual Transport & Industrials Conference takes place this week on 5/19-21, and we have over 80 Transport, Airline, and Multi-Industry companies scheduled to present and/or host 1x1 meetings.
The who’s who of transportation will gather via GoToMeeting links at our 13th Annual Virtual Transport & Industrials Conference this week on May 19-21 (R.I.P. Marriott East Side). We’ve got over 80 transportation, airline, and multi-industry companies presenting and/or hosting 1x1 meetings.
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