Ingersoll-Rand (IR, Market Cap ~$35b) announced that February 29th is the expected date for its spin-off/merger of its Industrial segment with Gardner Denver (GDI). The segment is expected to have 2020 adjusted EBITDA of ~$855 mm.
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Increasingly, over the past year, we’ve been focused on identifying potential short stock ideas/avoiding stock blow-ups. Our short screens comprise the 14 most potent valuation, earnings quality, capital creation, capital allocation, and sentiment metrics we’ve found to be most useful in searching for ideas on which to complete additional fundamental analysis. These short screens represent the backbone of the process we use into which to dig deeper and identify the most compelling short ideas.
Each month, we publish our favorite long idea stock screens. They encompass many investment styles and themes including value, growth, capital creation, cash usage, corporate actions, dividends, and financial institutions.
Each month, we publish Senyek’s Long Stock Screens and Senyek’s Short Stock Screens, featuring our favorite long and short ideas across many investment styles. In this report, we track the share price performance of the ~50 thematic stock baskets on an absolute and relative basis. In this report, we provide details of these thematic baskets’ performance for 2019 and January 2020. In addition, we include market, sector and industry long-term relative valuations.
Cott (COT, Market Cap ~$2.0b) announced that it has entered into an agreement to sell S&D Coffee and Tea to Westrock Coffee Company for $405m. This morning, we published a deep dive special situations report on Cott where we summarize our investment thesis, business overview, pro forma financials, and valuation.
Within a span of two weeks in January, Cott (COT) (current market cap.~$2b) announced strategic alternatives for its S&D Coffee and Tea business (20% of EV) and the acquisition of Primo Water Corp. ($775m EV). Through a series of divestitures and acquisitions since 2014, COTT has transformed itself from a private label soft drink and juice company (lower margin/growth) to pure play home and office water delivery company with 30% market share in the U.S. (along with Nestle at ~30%) as well as in refill, exchange and dispensers via the Primo acquisition. Pro forma for the purchase of Primo Water and sale of Coffee/Tea, Cott serves ~3,600 home/office direct to consumer routes with over 45,000 locations dedicated to water dispense, exchange, and refill. In January 2016, the company acquired Aquaterra, Canada’s oldest and largest home and office water delivery business with over 50% market share.
The 2020 tax filing season began January 27th, 2020. After ~2% decline in refunds during the 2019 tax filing season, we expect 2020 refunds to be flat vs 2019. By and large, individual income tax provisions, rates, deductions and withholding rules did not materially change in 2019. Therefore, the primary driving factor for any year-over-year changes in refunds would be taxpayer driven changes of their withholding or estimated tax payment behavior. Put another way, did a taxpayer with a surprise low refund / high tax payment voluntarily prepay more in 2019 to avoid a similar situation when filing their tax return in 2020? Or vice versa, did a taxpayer with a surprise high refund in 2019 manage their withholdings to pull forward that cash into the 2019 tax year? We would expect the former more than the latter, though in the aggregate not a material swing factor in overall refund trends.
ServiceMaster (SERV, Market Cap ~$5.1b) announced that it is exploring strategic alternatives for its ServiceMaster Brands businesses. For the twelve months ending September 30, 2019, the segment reported revenue of $252m, representing ~12% of total company sales.
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