Primo Water (PRMW, Market Cap ~$1.4 bn, f/k/a Cott) hosted its 2020 Investor and Analyst Day where it highlighted long term revenue growth of 5%, composed of water direct / exchange of 4-5%, Water Filtration / Refill of 5-7%, and Water Dispensers at 8%. Due to the Covid-19 situation, the company expects first half 2020 EBITDA to be down $8-10mm, however believes it is in a stable position due to improving performance in its water direct business, and strong credit and liquidity positions. It remains one of our favorite special situation ideas.
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The combination of falling asset values and downward pressure on interest rates has created the worst aggregate pension underfunding on record. In this note, we refresh our pension underfunding analysis and identify companies most at risk to potential balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow issues.
In light of the recent market correction, we list special situation stocks down more than 40% since the market peak on February 19, 2020. See pages 18-20.
Increasingly, over the past year, we’ve been focused on identifying potential short stock ideas/avoiding stock blow-ups. Our short screens comprise the 14 most potent valuation, earnings quality, capital creation, capital allocation, and sentiment metrics we’ve found to be most useful in searching for ideas on which to complete additional fundamental analysis. These short screens represent the backbone of the process we use into which to dig deeper and identify the most compelling short ideas.
In light of the recent market correction, we list special situation stocks down more than 35% since the market peak on February 19, 2020.
Each month, we publish our favorite long idea stock screens. They encompass many investment styles and themes including value, growth, capital creation, cash usage, corporate actions, dividends, and financial institutions.
Our quarterly earnings quality (EQ) score is an objective way to identify potential accounting related short ideas and as a risk tool to avoid potential blow-ups in the portfolio. Our EQ Score uses seven financial ratios along with sentiment and valuation metrics to find potential underperforming stocks. The EQ Score ranges from a minimum of 0 (lowest quality) to a maximum of 100, and we rank companies within each sector on a relative basis, using ‘4Q 2019 reported financial information. This analysis covers ~2,000 companies, representing Russell 3000 companies with market cap’s over $250 million, excluding the FIN sector. See inside for details.
Cott Corp completed the acquisition of Primo Water and has renamed itself as Primo Water Corp (PRMW, Market Cap ~$3bn). Primo Water remains one of our top special situation ideas.
Each month, we publish Senyek’s Long Stock Screens and Senyek’s Short Stock Screens, featuring our favorite long and short ideas across many investment styles. In this report, we track the share price performance of ~50 thematic stock baskets on an absolute and relative basis. We also provide details of these thematic baskets’ performance for YTD and over the past month. In addition, we include market, sector, and industry long-term relative valuations.
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