According to The Telegraph, activist investor Elliott, which owns approximately 5% of Saga (SAGA LN), believes separating the insurance and travel business would position them to be more attractive to potential buyers.
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Clearly, the debate is not if the Fed is going to cut rates, but rather whether the fed funds rate will be 50, 75 or 100bps lower by year end. The difficulty in making this forecast stems from the FOMC’s shift in focus from employment and inflation to the business cycle, risk mitigation and the wealth effect. Our sense is that two cuts by the end of the year is the most likely scenario — an outcome that would leave many investors disappointed.
According to Reuters, Bayer (BAYN.GR) is said to have approached Elanco (ELAN) about a possible animal health merger.
Increasingly, over the past year, we’ve been focused on identifying potential short stock ideas/avoiding stock blow-ups. Our short screens comprise the 12 most potent valuation, earnings quality, capital creation, capital allocation, and sentiment metrics we’ve found to be most useful in searching for ideas on which to complete additional fundamental analysis. These short screens represent the backbone of the process we use into which to dig deeper and identify the most compelling short ideas.
Each month, we publish our favorite long idea stock screens. They encompass many investment styles and themes including value, growth, capital creation, cash usage, corporate actions, dividends, and financial institutions.
Each month, we publish Senyek’s Long Stock Screens and Senyek’s Short Stock Screens, featuring our favorite long and short ideas across many investment styles. In this report, we track the share price performance of the ~50 thematic stock baskets on an absolute and relative basis. In the pages that follow, we provide details of these thematic baskets’ performance for 2019 year-to-date. In addition, we include market, sector, and industry long-term relative valuations.
Following this past weekend’s G20 summit in Osaka, we continue to believe that U.S. equity markets are ‘priced for perfection’ with consensus assuming that (1) the U.S. and China reach a nondisruptive trade deal, (2) trade-related headwinds don’t spark a global recession, and (3) global central banks significantly ease, including the Fed cutting by 75bps+ before the end of the year. Quite simply, we don’t see these three things happening simultaneously.
KAR Auction Services (KAR) completed the spin-off of IAA Inc. (IAA) today. IAA Inc. is an omnichannel marketplace for total loss, damaged and low-value vehicles and had LTM (1Q19) revenues of $1.3 bn. An investor presentation can be found here.
Following last week’s dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Draghi, our sense is investors are counting on a global easing cycle to bail out the global economy and markets before trade-related headwinds irreparably damage business confidence and spark a recession. As we discussed last week, we don’t believe it’s going to be that simple and we remain bearish. Looking ahead, our base case hasn’t changed that trade uncertainty is likely to persist. Further we now believe that interest rates are likely to remain low and range bound for the foreseeable future. With many investors increasingly focused on yield in this environment, this week, we discuss our favorite divided investing strategies.
AECOM (ACM) announced that it intends to spin off its Management Services segment into a separate government services business. The transaction is expected to be completed in H2 of FY2020. For fiscal 2018, the Management Services segment generated revenue of $3.7 bn. Activist investor Starboard delivered a letter to AECOM highlighting its view that the spin-off announcement is a positive first step however a more expansive and review of the company’s assets is necessary.
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