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According to The Telegraph, activist investor Elliott, which owns approximately 5% of Saga (SAGA LN), believes separating the insurance and travel business would position them to be more attractive to potential buyers.
This morning (07/18/19), the Conference Board released its monthly Leading Index, which fell -0.3% m/m. Recall, we classify the U.S. market cycle into six phases based upon the rate of change in the three-month rolling average of this Index. According to our framework, the U.S. market cycle remains solidly in the ‘Late Deceleration’ phase (5th of 6th phase).
Clearly, the debate is not if the Fed is going to cut rates, but rather whether the fed funds rate will be 50, 75 or 100bps lower by year end. The difficulty in making this forecast stems from the FOMC’s shift in focus from employment and inflation to the business cycle, risk mitigation and the wealth effect. Our sense is that two cuts by the end of the year is the most likely scenario — an outcome that would leave many investors disappointed.
According to Reuters, Bayer (BAYN.GR) is said to have approached Elanco (ELAN) about a possible animal health merger.
Increasingly, over the past year, we’ve been focused on identifying potential short stock ideas/avoiding stock blow-ups. Our short screens comprise the 12 most potent valuation, earnings quality, capital creation, capital allocation, and sentiment metrics we’ve found to be most useful in searching for ideas on which to complete additional fundamental analysis. These short screens represent the backbone of the process we use into which to dig deeper and identify the most compelling short ideas.
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