This morning GPC reported Q3 results. Revenue growth of +6.2% was 30bps below Consensus. Adj. EPS of $1.50 beat Cons of $1.47 and our $1.46. Automotive margins declined 60bps y/y, largely due to deleverage in Europe on a MSD comp sales decline. GPC also lowered guidance for sales & EPS largely due to EIS divestiture. Shares were up 1%.
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Today (10/07/19) we are assuming broader coverage of hardlines and internet retail with deep-dive reports on four companies, including a LOW downgrade to PP. We also have two ratings changes from our existing retail coverage (AAP to UP and ORLY to OP), and assuming coverage of six additional retail names with concise 1-page investment tear sheets.
China cash crunch?
A number of investors have recently asked us about our 2020 expectations for China and at this point we don’t have a high conviction answer. We note several interesting developments within.
What’s the biggest risk for US OEMs?
We’ve been asked what could potentially set back our relatively bullish thesis on the U.S. OEMs (and GM in particular). In our minds the biggest risk is increasing capacity in the pickup truck market. The large pickup truck market still looks ok but we see risk to mid-size trucks.
McDonald’s – DoorDash partnership highlights competitive risks but we still see strong US growth for Uber Eats
We analyze what McDonald’s announced partnership with DoorDash means for Uber, and why we still see strong growth potential for Eats in the US.
GPC – Another EU blow up
Genuine Parts Company reported yesterday AM and missed on both Revenue (by 140bps) and EPS (by 4%), Europe was largely responsible.
This morning (7/18/19) GPC reported Q2 results. Revenue growth of +2.3% was 140bps below Cons. Adj-EPS of $1.57 missed Cons. of $1.64 and our $1.62. Automotive margins declined 70bps y/y, largely due to 250bps of deleverage in Europe on a 7-8% comp sales decline. Shares were down 5%.
We wanted to flag a few highlights in today's (06/05/19) Wolfe Research Auto Daily....
We attended the inaugural, 2-day GPC analyst day and store tour. Overall, there was a lot of positive energy from the GPC team and the day was informative allowing a better appreciation for the depth of GPC's mgt. bench and their willingness to embrace change. In this regard we were positively surprised. There was no update to NT/LT guidance.
This morning (04/18/19), GPC reported Q1 2019 earnings. Total revenue growth of +3.3% was 110bps below Consensus. Adj. EPS of $1.28 missed Consensus of $1.30 but beat our $1.25. Organic revenue was strong, and margins improved y/y for Industrial but contracted for Auto, mostly due to Europe. Shares were down 6% versus flattish for the S&P 500.
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