This morning (02/19/19), GPC reported Q4 2018 earnings. Total revenue growth of +9.4% was 120bps above Consensus. Adj. EPS of $1.35 beat Cons. of $1.32 and our $1.31. Organic revenue was strong, and margins improved y/y for Industrial but contracted for Auto. Shares were up 1.5% versus flattish for the S&P 500.
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This morning (10/18/18), GPC reported Q3 2018 earnings. Total revenue growth of +15.3% was 100bps above Consensus. Adj. EPS of $1.48 was in-line with Cons., but 1¢ below our $1.49. Organic revenue was strong, and margins improved y/y for Auto and Industrial. Stronger top-line trends and stable margins lifted shares 6% versus the S&P 500’s decline of 1.5%.
Add tariffs and commodity inflation to the growing list of headaches that investors/companies must contend with. We lay out our thoughts and some exhibits to help frame the impact of these macro issues on the auto part retailers and what we have observed to date.
We undertook the unenviable task of reading the proxy for every company under coverage (and one we don’t cover: TSLA).
Yesterday (5/9/2018), Sears (not covered) announced a partnership with Amazon (c/b S. Mushkin) to sell and install any brand of tire at Sears’ 400+ Auto Center locations. In Feb. 2018, Amazon began carrying Die Hard starters, chargers, and Gold AGM batteries (expensive). Stock reaction was mixed with the group only modestly trailing (+0.5%) the S&P 500 (+1.0%).
Yesterday AM (4/20/2018), GPC reported Q1 2018 earnings. Total revenue growth of +17.4% was 300bps above Consensus. Adj. EPS of $1.27 missed both Consensus of $1.32 and our $1.29. Full-year 2018 guidance remained unchanged despite the miss, potentially partially offset by a now lower tax rate guide of 26% (vs. 26-27% previously). GPC shares were down -3.5% versus the S&P 500 of -0.6%.
This AM (4/12/2018) pre-open, GPC announced that it is tax-free spinning its Office segment to its closest peer ESND (Not covered) with expected cash proceeds of $347M and an expected pro-rata share value of ESND of $333M, which essentially assumes ESND’s pre-deal share value holds after the deal. GPC shares are +1% today (in-line with S&P 500).
This morning (02/21/18), GPC reported Q4 17 earnings. Total revenue growth of +11.3% was 90bps above Consensus. Adj. EPS of $1.19 beat both Consensus $1.02 and our $0.97. Full-year 2018 guidance, however, disappointed with a mid-point of $5.68 versus Consensus of $5.86 and our $5.75, as taxes came in slightly higher and GPC called out -$0.15 to -$0.20 of incremental investment in 2018. Additionally, given tax reform and AAG accretion, the mid-point of guidance would reflect negative core EPS growth. GPC shares were down -5% on the day.
Most of you cover 50 – 200 stocks and therefore don’t have the liberty of being as into the weeds on every name – that’s our job. To help you do yours, we have created a comprehensive, but chart-heavy, guide to our coverage that is meant to have shelf life and that can be referred back to when you are ready to dig more into our coverage.
Auto part retailers were down -30 to -42% through August but are up +17 to 47% since. To gauge current analyst expectations, we surveyed buy side investors to sort out top ideas, relative positioning, and near-term expectations for comps. We also tackled contentious topics including weather, the impact of the 09-11 SAAR air pocket, AAP margin trajectory, tax reform, and valuation methodology.
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