W reported Q4 results that met on revenue but slightly missed on EBITDA margins (by 22 bps). The guided deceleration in revenue and messaging on advertising refinements overwhelmed a commitment to turn US run-rate profitable by end of 2021. Stock was -18%
Search Coverage List, Models & Reports
Search Results1-10 out of 792
Yesterday (02/25/20) post-close CVNA reported Q4 and beat on $GP/U but missed on SG&A. For the 2020 guide CVNA guided below Cons/scrape data but given track record is likely being conservative. $GP/U was materially better, but implied SG&A was much worse. Stock is -11% in after-hours.
Thursday PM (1/30), AMZN reported Q4 results, beating on revenue and margins across each of its three segments. On a consolidated basis, AMZN beat revenue by 1.5% and margins by 130bps. AMZN also provided Q1 2020 guidance, which came in 1% below consensus for revenue and 60bps below for margins even with a favorable adj. to depreciation lives. Shares were +7% Friday versus S&P of -2%.
With concerns over the Coronavirus spreading, we think US Retailers will likely be viewed as near-term relative safe-haven stocks given limited direct exposure to China. However, should the virus spread into a pandemic, especially in China, we see a greater impact to US retailers from indirect supply chain exposure or US GDP growth.
To help gear up for 2020 we analyzed 2019 performance, identified 10 key themes into 2020, analyzed post Q3 earnings reaction, and analyzed the key issue facing each stock under coverage into 2020.
Yesterday (11/06/19), after market, Carvana reported Q3. After delivering a near perfect Q2, CVNA took a small step back in Retail/Wholesale $GP/U’s and SG&A (Exhibit 8), but the financing business remains strong.
W reported Q3 results with a slight beat on revenue (by 1%) and active customers (by 1%) but missed on EBITDA margins (by 20 bps). While the print was largely okay, the Q4 guide was very soft, with revenue coming in 6% below consensus and EBITDA margins declining 100bps sequentially and 450bps y/y. Mgmt. blamed guidance on tariff volatility. Stock was -19%
While we believe the street was braced for a miss on EBIT as a result of rising shipping investments, we suspect the Q4 revenue guide was lower than most were braced for. Amazon was quick to point out a historical 300bps of seasonal degradation in Q4 vs Q3; y/y), coupled with an issue with Int’l comparisons in Q4 driving an 80bps headwind vs a 40bps tailwind in Q3. The 4Q19 guide implies EBIT% of 2.5% at the mid-point (-270bps y/y vs prior Street estimates of -40bps y/y). Even though the shipping investment headwinds have been more or less digested by investors at this point, the magnitude of the 4Q guide down will likely pressure the stock.
Two weeks ago, we assumed broader coverage of Hardlines and Internet Retail and issued four deep dive reports including a downgrade of LOW to Peer Perform and reiterated HD, BBY, and W at Outperform. We also assumed coverage of AMZN, ULTA, WSM, RH, TSCO, and SHW (see our 1-page tear sheets here). Finally, we utilized the broader coverage as an opportunity to reposition our legacy auto part retail coverage and downgrade AAP to Underperform and upgraded ORLY to Outperform.
Wolfe Research's Senior Hardlines & Internet Retail Analyst Chris Bottiglieri hosted a webcast to discuss his downgrades of AAP and LOW, bottom-up TAM analyses on both home improvement retail and auto parts retail, his valuation black box: what is driving retail valuations, and more.
- 1 of 80
- next →