GLPI reported 2Q after yesterday’s close and hosted their call this AM. AFFO/share was $0.84 vs. our $0.78 and consensus of $0.78. Adjusted EBITDA was $247M vs. our $242M and consensus of $241M, with GLPI beating us at its TRS properties.
Search Coverage List, Models & Reports
Search Results1-9 out of 9
In this week’s piece we discuss a few topics with several charts, including: 1) incremental thoughts on WYND’s disappointing pre-report, but why we think there are five key reasons to be more encouraged after further analysis; 2) recent U.S. leisure travel and casino trends, where prior improvement has seemingly stalled some based on data we track; and 3) we look at what the data suggests for the prospects of another casino shutdown in Nevada/Vegas, which we do not expect. Please click here to view the full report.
This is a piece we publish each quarter where we discuss key themes and refresh our thesis with about 70 slides. Specifically, we show the results of our recent investor survey; we discuss where we see the best opportunities; we look at the election impact to our group; we look at retail money flows into our stocks; and we update estimates and preview the upcoming quarter, and more.
In this week's piece we highlight work from Wolfe's Technical Analyst Team. Our technical team provided us with their technical outlook for the stocks under our gaming/lodging coverage, and we show their views and how it compares to our fundamental views. Please click here to view the full report.
Lodging stocks had a better week last week along with the market, but our lodging coverage is still down an average of 20% since the June 8th mini-peak versus the S&P 500 down 3%, as the “reopening trade” has stalled following rising COVID-19 cases. Timeshare stocks have been performing with broad lodging, and in this week’s piece we discuss several thoughts with charts highlighting why we think there should be more differentiation between timeshare and hotel stocks.
Last week we initiated coverage on the gaming REITs, with Outperform ratings on VICI, MGP, and GLPI. We had the chance to speak with many investors following our launch, and feedback was generally positive. In this week’s piece we discuss sentiment and what we heard. We also discuss some cross-capital structure considerations, where the gaming REIT dividend yields are higher than the unsecured corporate debt yields of their tenants, which doesn’t make sense to us given the seniority of the lease payments.
We’re initiating coverage of GLPI with an Outperform rating, and a $46 YE21 target price, which is based on 14x our 2022E AFFO. GLPI has steady and predictable cash flows, with a dividend yield of 6.6%, well above the 10-year treasury rate; we see opportunity for GLPI and peers to close the valuation gap to other triple-net REITs; and we expect regional casinos to recover faster than other consumer-cyclical industries.