Wolfe Research Senior IT Hardware & Networking Analyst, Steve Milunovich, hosted a webcast with Larry Birnbaum, Professor of Computer Science at Northwestern University and co-founder of Narrative Science to discuss the current state and future of AI, the automatic generation of narratives from data, and reference predication and recommendation using social media data.
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A history of leading tech market caps reflects substantial change—competitive advantage periods are short. IBM is close to falling off the list as PayPal, Broadcom, and Tata Consultancy close in.
Apple is not making a dramatic shift toward a services strategy. Apple TV+ is not a Netflix killer. Apple Arcade and Apple TV+ did not provide pricing details, and the celebrities spoke about but did not provide clips from their shows. The announcements probably will not avoid a correction in the stock, which has been overbought and is right on the 200-day MA after 34% recovery from the bottom.
The Wolfe Tech Universe closed down 0.5% last week, slightly ahead of the S&P 500’s 0.8% decline. Semis was the only group rising. Best performers were MongoDB (+14%), AMD (+13%), SK hynix (+12%), and Wix.com (+10%). Decliners included Infinera (-9%), GrubHub (-9%), Teradata (-8%), and Tencent Music (-7%). Tech skews toward overbought though less so now; Cloudera is the only stock with an RSI under 30 (p3).
Nutanix held its analyst day yesterday, which we consider a moderate net positive. The stock rose by over 6%, perhaps due to the CFO pointing to some pipeline improvement the past two weeks.
Horace Dediu has been known for his Apple analysis, but he also has become a leading proponent of “micromobility,” transportation by bikes and scooters. At the Clay Christensen Institute he looked for disruptive innovation in transportation but had trouble finding an attack from the low end until he took his first ebike ride.
The Wolfe Tech Universe increased 3.2% the past week vs the S&P 500’s 2.9% rise. Software led with Semis close behind thanks to a 3% Friday jump for the SOX. Top stocks were MongoDB (+35%), Snap (+18%), Momo (+18%), and Dell (+15%). Laggards included Cloudera (-16%), Wirecard (-15%), Renesas (-13%), and Roku (-12%). A list too long to name is overbought while no stocks have an RSI <30—it may be time to take some risk off (p3). Apple short interest has rocketed by 141% (p4).
Jabil’s F2Q report and guidance were in-line with estimates though the mix was more EMS and less DMS than expected. The company is on track to make its $3.00 EPS F19 guidance and raised FCF by $50mn. Especially interesting were the read-across takeaways: (1) Mobility (Apple) was below plan for the quarter, and Jabil is not expecting recovery the balance of the year; and (2) a pickup in semicap orders was expected around June/July, but that has been pushed out six months to early 2020.
We hosted Irving Wladawsky-Berger, who retired from IBM in 2007 where he was responsible for identifying emerging technologies and marketplace developments. He’s now a research affiliate at MIT's Sloan School of Management, and a fellow of the Initiative on the Digital Economy and of the MIT Connection Science Initiative.
Wolfe Research Senior IT Hardware & Networking Analyst, Steve Milunovich, hosted a webcast with Dan Galves, Wolfe Autos Analyst, and Horace Dediu. Topics for discussion included the coming unbundling of transportation, micromobility and why could it be more important than autonomous vehicles, and the early usage statistics and vendors.
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