The hottest names this week were CMLS (1,093bps better than the S&P), MDP (453bps), CABO (448bps), BBGI (292bps), and CHTR (231bps).
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The hottest names this week were SBGI (3,969bps better than the S&P), CCO (829bps), OUT (691bps), TGNA (660bps), and FOXA (501bps).
Q1 revenue missed big (core and digital), but Q1 adj. EBITDA beat and the Q2 core revenue “guide” of “up LSD” was better than expected.
From what we can tell, revenue missed by 2.3% – it was Local by a touch, and National and Digital by more than a touch. Retrans came in slightly ahead – which is important given concerns over recent Pay-TV trends.
The hottest names this week were ATUS (527bps better than the S&P), BBGI (458bps), CABO (337bps), WWE (322bps), and CHTR (123bps).
The hottest names this week were DIS (441bps better than the S&P), DISCA (199bps), CHTR (195bps), ETM (188bps), and CMCSA (157bps).
In our view, the big positive surprises were out of the bag in the Q4 print, when almost all of our Local names significantly outperformed the S&P for slightly better core, net retrans guidance, political commentary and/or M&A. On the flip side, we also don’t see any negative surprises either, especially with regards to net retrans, which some of the bears are harping on at the moment.
We are updating our PF, post-divestiture ests. to incorporate the last two divestitures from the TRCO deal. Recall that on 4/8, NXST announced that it has agreed to sell WISH-TV (CW) and WNDY (MyNetwork) in Indianapolis to Circle City Broadcasting for $42.5MM – completing the companies divestiture plans to a total of 21 stations in 16 markets. Per the latest release, gross proceeds now total $1.3625B and represent a “melded” sellers multiple of 10.6x, which nets us $128.5MM of total divestiture EBITDA. We updated our model for the incremental $8.5MM of divestiture EBITDA now sold – which brings our post-divestiture revenue and EBITDA estimates down by less than 1% in both PF ’18 and PF ’19. Importantly, our ‘18/’19 PF, post-divestiture FCF/share remains above management’s $900MM, or $19.50/share, guide -as we are at $931MM, or $20.15/share.
We hosted 14 management teams/ experts in fireside chats at our 1 ½ day Broadcast Investor Forum around the NAB Show (see page 2 for exactly who was there) in Las Vegas April 8-9. We were also fortunate enough to dine in a small group setting with FCC Commissioner Mike O’Rielly Monday (April 8) evening.
The hottest names this week were ETM (1,064bps better than the S&P), SBGI (1,026bps), DISCA (707bps), DISH (592bps), and VIAB (422bps).
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