With the rapidly changing business outlook due to Covid-19, several local and national ad categories are cancelling or reducing ad budgets – pulling back much more than in the financial crisis. As a result, we expect consensus estimates to move significantly lower, likely in a series of downward revisions in the coming months. We believe it’s too soon to get constructive on the media sector and we are downgrading ETM and IHRT to PP from OP, and prefer OP rated NXST for investors looking for exposure to the sector.
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The hottest names this week were WWE (1,474 bps better than the S&P), NFLX (1,373 bps), AMCX (774 bps), CABO (771 bps), and DISH (388 bps).
The hottest names this week were AMCX (1,278 bps better than the S&P), TGNA (1,030 bps), MDP (706 bps), FOXA (348 bps) and CMCSA (174 bps).
Similar to last week, there wasn't anything particularly hot about the market this week - but, we remind you that our What's Hot What's Not is all relative. On the bright side, at least this see-saw week has come to an end, TGIF.
While there wasn't anything particularly hot about the market this week, we remind you that our What's Hot What's Not is all relative. On a positive note, we finally made it to the end of this rough rough week, TGIF.
The stock had a rollercoaster day, opening down -5% due to what appeared to be a Q1 retrans guide miss, but ended trading up +5% after some clarification on the earnings call. Kevin was quick to explain that GTN pushed a major retrans renewal to the end of Q1 from the end of Q4, shifting the timing of the rate step-up to beg. of Q2 from beg. of Q1 – which we admittedly did not appropriately have in our model. Incorporating the commentary, our Q2-Q4 retrans estimates stay relatively the same as before and our net retrans margins improve from ~42% in Q1’20 to ~45% for the rest of 2020. With the retrans noise cleared up, the Q1 / FY’20 guide looks even better than before.
Overall, this was a pretty good qtr., with Q4 beating across the board (as we’ve seen with most of its TV peers) and Q1 / FY’20 guides also coming in ahead of our expectations. The print did have one negative though – Q1 retrans guide came in softer than expected.
The hottest names this week were WWE (706 bps better than the S&P), SSP (493 bps), DISH (338 bps), NFLX (228 bps), and ATUS (185 bps). DISH’s print was hot – with really nice financials (revenue and EBITDA beat Consensus by 300bps and 1,600bps respectively) and satellite sub additions (beat Consensus by 22k) outweighing the large Sling subscriber miss (below Consensus by about 200k). Unfortunately we didn’t get a whole lot of new news on the wireless front, which is what can (and probably will) really move the stock when the time comes.
The NFL’s TV rights negotiations are about to HEAT UP. Standing in the way is the collective bargaining agreement (CBA) between the league and the players, which the NFL reportedly hopes to wrap in the next few weeks (despite the CBA running through the 2020 season, or another 18 months). According to today’s WSJ, the NFL wants to lock down a new deal ASAP, as ratings were strong this year on the back of young new stars – plus the league wants to get in front of any potential economic downturn or the 2020 Presidential election, which could dampen ratings and hurt its negotiating leverage (i.e. ratings fell 8% in 2016). From the studios’ perspective, we think getting a deal done sooner rather than later would remove an overhang for the stocks – as some investors still question if a meaningful portion of the rights will go to digital players (we strongly disagree).
The hottest names this week were ETM (866 bps better than the S&P), MDP (652 bps), NFLX (375 bps), SSP (299 bps), and GTN (199 bps).
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