We’ve finally had the time to digest the Q3 prints – for which we provide our observations and lessons learned. We also answer the question: “How can I make money from now until year-end?” as well as provide investor feedback now that we are through the last earnings cycle of 2019. Our note has a lot of cool charts – such as how each company did relative to Consensus expectations for Q3, and where Consensus estimates have gone up and gone down for both 2019 and 2020.
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With ETM’s foray into the podcast space circa Cadence13 and Pineapple, it’s easy to get lost in all the moving pieces. At the end of the day, core broadcast ex-political was +1% in Q3 and is pacing about the same in Q4. Comparing ETM to it’s peers, we’d call this outperformance since both BBGI and IHRT were essentially flat in the quarter, while BBGI is pacing down LSD ex-political in Q4 (we aren’t 100% sure about IHRT, but it is likely the same).
This is going to be short and sheet as we now say……given we had 18 companies report and my wrist hurts.
In perhaps the shortest press release we have received all earnings season (which we greatly appreciate so thank you, Rich!), ETM beat Q3 revenue AND EBITDA.
Here is what we’ve been hearing this long insane week – which is going to be followed by another one of what I will call “WORST WEEKS EVER.” Yep – you guessed it. Media earnings time. Thankfully though, Hans (CBS) and Franz (VIAB) are reporting the week after….
We already updated our NXST, SSP, SBGI, and TGNA estimates in separate notes the past couple of weeks (NXST, SSP, and TGNA were on 10/15, while SBGI was on 10/29). So, in this note, we’re playing a little bit of catch up with the other two broadcasters – specifically reducing Q4 sub estimates for GTN and MDP – all related to AT&T. We also summarize our expectations for all our Local coverage going into the Q3 print.
The hottest names this week were ATUS (369 bps better than the S&P), NFLX (310 bps), CHTR (355 bps), GTN (354 bps), and SBGI (306 bps).
After being on the road most of this week (NYC meetings and the Midwest) and getting in way late last night, we wanted to share some of the lovely Media sentiment that will brighten your weekend….not.
The hottest names this week were CMLS (973 bps better than the S&P), IHRT (900 bps), CHTR (619 bps), OUT (463 bps), and NFLX (435 bps).
The hottest names this week were IHRT (414 bps better than the S&P), OUT (362 bps), LAMR (209 bps), CCO (207 bps), and WWE (162 bps).
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