Due to a realignment of resources, we are withdrawing coverage of BBGI, CABO, and TGNA. Our final ratings, price targets, and estimates should no longer be relied upon.
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The hottest names this week were WWE (1,474 bps better than the S&P), NFLX (1,373 bps), AMCX (774 bps), CABO (771 bps), and DISH (388 bps).
The hottest names this week were AMCX (1,278 bps better than the S&P), TGNA (1,030 bps), MDP (706 bps), FOXA (348 bps) and CMCSA (174 bps).
Similar to last week, there wasn't anything particularly hot about the market this week - but, we remind you that our What's Hot What's Not is all relative. On the bright side, at least this see-saw week has come to an end, TGIF.
While there wasn't anything particularly hot about the market this week, we remind you that our What's Hot What's Not is all relative. On a positive note, we finally made it to the end of this rough rough week, TGIF.
The hottest names this week were WWE (706 bps better than the S&P), SSP (493 bps), DISH (338 bps), NFLX (228 bps), and ATUS (185 bps). DISH’s print was hot – with really nice financials (revenue and EBITDA beat Consensus by 300bps and 1,600bps respectively) and satellite sub additions (beat Consensus by 22k) outweighing the large Sling subscriber miss (below Consensus by about 200k). Unfortunately we didn’t get a whole lot of new news on the wireless front, which is what can (and probably will) really move the stock when the time comes.
BBGI’s Q4 print was mixed, as reflected in today’s (02/18/20) stock price performance, -3% vs. S&P -0.3%. Revenue beat by ~200bps, but EBITDA came in light due to higher expenses – a recurring theme for this name. Q1 revenue, on the other hand, is pacing in-line with our estimate with higher political offset by lower core. As we look out to the rest of 2020, we expect BBGI to better monetize its investments in digital but worry that the rev. gains will again be offset by higher expenses. As a result, we raised our 2020 and 2021 revenue by ~1% each, but keep our 2020 and 2021 EBITDA unchanged. We maintain our Peer Perform rating and $4 YE 2020 price target.
On an as-reported basis (which includes the impact of the WDMK-FM as of Aug. ‘19), net revenues beat at -4.6% vs. our -7.1% est. and the “down HSD” pace mgmt. provided on its Q3’19 earnings call. The y/y decline in revs was mostly due to tough comps from the absence of political. Ex. political, the release characterized the Q4 ad environment as “healthy,” with “six of our markets generating y/y increases.” Our sense is that core adv. was still down organically but ended the year better than expected given the top-line beat.
The NFL’s TV rights negotiations are about to HEAT UP. Standing in the way is the collective bargaining agreement (CBA) between the league and the players, which the NFL reportedly hopes to wrap in the next few weeks (despite the CBA running through the 2020 season, or another 18 months). According to today’s WSJ, the NFL wants to lock down a new deal ASAP, as ratings were strong this year on the back of young new stars – plus the league wants to get in front of any potential economic downturn or the 2020 Presidential election, which could dampen ratings and hurt its negotiating leverage (i.e. ratings fell 8% in 2016). From the studios’ perspective, we think getting a deal done sooner rather than later would remove an overhang for the stocks – as some investors still question if a meaningful portion of the rights will go to digital players (we strongly disagree).
The hottest names this week were ETM (866 bps better than the S&P), MDP (652 bps), NFLX (375 bps), SSP (299 bps), and GTN (199 bps).
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