This is going to be short and sheet as we now say……given we had 18 companies report and my wrist hurts.
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Granted, we know the issues at AT&T – but today’s commentary was very consistent that credit scores and the general quality of subs have been the highest the company has seen in a long time. It might very well be that we’re actually seeing the benefits of the strategy DISH put in place a while ago. While we’re afraid to do a 180 with our sub ests. despite the last two beats, we did moderate our losses at DISH DBS as well as move to sub gains from flat at Sling. For Q4, we are now assuming a net sub loss of -129k vs. our prior -302k; and after the Q3 beat and our improved Q4, we are forecasting -271k for ‘19 vs. our prior -847k. For ‘20, we are moving up to -344k from -908k.
This was the biggest positive surprise print we can remember since the last positive surprise print (recall DISH lost only 38k subs in Q2 – 220k+ better than expected).
Here is what we’ve been hearing this long insane week – which is going to be followed by another one of what I will call “WORST WEEKS EVER.” Yep – you guessed it. Media earnings time. Thankfully though, Hans (CBS) and Franz (VIAB) are reporting the week after….
In this note, we perform detailed work on the LT mobile opportunity (ATUS, CMCSA, CHTR); look at valuation relative to historical trends and the S&P; and adjust our models for billing conversions (ATUS), price increases (CHTR), softer non-cable trends (CMCSA) and lengthy carriage fights (DISH). Last, we rollforward our price targets to Y/E 2020 from June 2020E. We remain Outperform on ATUS (31% upside) and CMCSA (23% upside) and Peer Perform on CHTR (10% upside), DISH (10% upside) and CABO (N/A).
The hottest names this week were ATUS (369 bps better than the S&P), NFLX (310 bps), CHTR (355 bps), GTN (354 bps), and SBGI (306 bps).
After being on the road most of this week (NYC meetings and the Midwest) and getting in way late last night, we wanted to share some of the lovely Media sentiment that will brighten your weekend….not.
The hottest names this week were CMLS (973 bps better than the S&P), IHRT (900 bps), CHTR (619 bps), OUT (463 bps), and NFLX (435 bps).
The hottest names this week were IHRT (414 bps better than the S&P), OUT (362 bps), LAMR (209 bps), CCO (207 bps), and WWE (162 bps).
Happy Friday the 13th. Although as one of my best buds on FB said, “I’d take Friday the 13th over any Monday.” So true.
Here’s what we have been hearing this week….
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