This is going to be short and sheet as we now say……given we had 18 companies report and my wrist hurts.
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Here is what we’ve been hearing this long insane week – which is going to be followed by another one of what I will call “WORST WEEKS EVER.” Yep – you guessed it. Media earnings time. Thankfully though, Hans (CBS) and Franz (VIAB) are reporting the week after….
Has the "Charter Dance" returned? In all seriousness, this was a really big beat on really high expectations – particularly in HSD. We would also highlight that video subs came in ahead, essentially erasing the CMCSA “miss”, which is likely why the media stocks are up today. For perspective, CHTR lost anywhere from 40-63k fewer video subs (the range is vs. the Street and us) while CMCSA lost 35k-38k more subs than had been expected (again that range is Street and then us). Looks like T and DISH are going to be the deciding factors for the entire Pay-TV industry. We remind you T reports Monday morning (10/28/19) (can’t wait).
In this note, we perform detailed work on the LT mobile opportunity (ATUS, CMCSA, CHTR); look at valuation relative to historical trends and the S&P; and adjust our models for billing conversions (ATUS), price increases (CHTR), softer non-cable trends (CMCSA) and lengthy carriage fights (DISH). Last, we rollforward our price targets to Y/E 2020 from June 2020E. We remain Outperform on ATUS (31% upside) and CMCSA (23% upside) and Peer Perform on CHTR (10% upside), DISH (10% upside) and CABO (N/A).
The hottest names this week were ATUS (369 bps better than the S&P), NFLX (310 bps), CHTR (355 bps), GTN (354 bps), and SBGI (306 bps).
After being on the road most of this week (NYC meetings and the Midwest) and getting in way late last night, we wanted to share some of the lovely Media sentiment that will brighten your weekend….not.
The hottest names this week were CMLS (973 bps better than the S&P), IHRT (900 bps), CHTR (619 bps), OUT (463 bps), and NFLX (435 bps).
The hottest names this week were IHRT (414 bps better than the S&P), OUT (362 bps), LAMR (209 bps), CCO (207 bps), and WWE (162 bps).
CHTR’s CEO Tom Rutledge spoke at an Investor Conference today (9/17/19).
Happy Friday the 13th. Although as one of my best buds on FB said, “I’d take Friday the 13th over any Monday.” So true.
Here’s what we have been hearing this week….
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