The hottest names this week were BBGI (168bps better than the S&P), TRCO (71bps), CHTR (30bps).
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The hottest names this week were GTN (880bps better than the S&P), ATUS (421bps), DISH (397bps), DISCA (290bps), CHTR (236bps), and CMCSA (236bps).
Most of last week, we were on the road (and in the air) meeting with investors from NYC all the way up to Toronto. No surprise that conversations were dominated by CBS/VIAB. But what DID intrigue was: (1) synergy expectations have come down; and (2) some investors have become all bulled up over Joe potentially staying on. In this note, we run some new PF CBS-VIAB math and see potential upside any way you cut it. We reiterate our Outperform on CBS ($65) & VIAB ($48).
The hottest names this week were ATUS (390bps better than the S&P), BBGI (367bps), CMLS (339bps), MDP (152bps), and FOXA (82bps).
The hottest names this week were CMLS (778bps better than the S&P), CCO (570bps), FOXA (323bps), DIS (245bps), and DISCA (234bps).
The hottest names this week were CABO (130bps better than the S&P), BBGI (90bps), DISCA (41bps), DIS (27bps), and ATUS (16bps).
Given increasing concerns around the Pay-TV ecosystem, we stressed our cable, media and broadcast models to see what happens to a variety of financial and val. metrics should video sub losses accelerate an incremental 100bps, 200bps, 300bps, 400bps and 500bps from current forecasts.
VIAB’s CEO Bob Bakish spoke at an Investor Conference today, and we wanted to highlight a few quick takeaways from his commentary.
The hottest names this week were DISH (585bps better than the S&P), VIAB (513bps), CBS (300bps), TRCO (254bps), and CHTR (234bps).
But we feel like they’re coming any day/hour/minute with CBS’s Board meeting having occurred TODAY (5/29) and most major obstacles behind both cos. (save the NFL renewal). We dig deep (25 pages deep) in this note – walking though the CBS-VIAB history and doing a detailed PF financial and valuation analysis. BOTTOM LINE: This is the first time we’re truly excited by the thought of a CBS-VIAB combo (Direct To Consumer, cost savings, international exposure, etc.) and view the risk-reward proposition as compelling for BOTH stocks. We upgrade CBS to OP ($65 PT) and reiterate our VIAB OP ($48 PT).
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