The hottest names this week were CMLS (778bps better than the S&P), CCO (570bps), FOXA (323bps), DIS (245bps), and DISCA (234bps).
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The hottest names this week were CABO (130bps better than the S&P), BBGI (90bps), DISCA (41bps), DIS (27bps), and ATUS (16bps).
Given increasing concerns around the Pay-TV ecosystem, we stressed our cable, media and broadcast models to see what happens to a variety of financial and val. metrics should video sub losses accelerate an incremental 100bps, 200bps, 300bps, 400bps and 500bps from current forecasts.
The hottest names this week were DISH (585bps better than the S&P), VIAB (513bps), CBS (300bps), TRCO (254bps), and CHTR (234bps).
First, happy Friday!
Second, we have a couple quick comments on the heels of T’s Locast announcement.
If you didn’t see it – AT&T is adding Locast’s app on its DIRECTV and U-Verse platforms starting today (5/31).
I spent a lot of time “in the field” this week with a whole host of investors (Boston, NYC, Disney)…so wanted to share what we have been hearing.
While the bulk of what we heard during the FOXA Investor Day (5/9, NYC) was positive - i.e. the partnership with TSG, the cadence of retrans/reverse, comments from Roger Goodell & Rob Manfred, the 2.5-3.0x gross leverage target, & no random M&A – we were not quite sure how to interpret the “$200-250MM of investment spend” for F’20. Our sense is that ~75% is incremental, specifically in TV. Separately, we had time to review our Cable ests. and note the $100MM EBITDA beat in FQ3 was on a lack of UFC & UEFA rights (which we didn’t flow thru). While this is a partial positive offset, we still reduce our F’20 EBITDA by 2.5% (to $2.608B from $2.671B vs. Consensus of $2.693B) and F’20 FCF by 2% (to $1.657B from $1.689B vs. Consensus of $1.938B).
The hottest names this week were CMLS (1,093bps better than the S&P), MDP (453bps), CABO (448bps), BBGI (292bps), and CHTR (231bps).
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