There was a lot of material covered on Peacock at CMCSA’s investor day (January 16th in New York), and we wanted to share our biggest takeaways – which are: 1) Peacock is truly unique – there is no OTT product that combines this type of premium content with an advertising model out there, 2) CMCSA’s guidance and forecasts seem quite conservative in our view, and 3) we think the platform is scalable globally. Bottom line: we walked away from the investor day impressed.
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As many of you have already heard, Marci has taken the plunge and left Wall Street after an exemplary 17 years to join Comcast as Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. We wish her the absolute best of luck in this new chapter of her career.
As we have done in every even-numbered year since 2002 (which is exactly when Marci entered the sell-side at the young age of 17), we are digging into the upcoming political cycle to determine which geographies are likely to have the most hotly contested races; and which of our broadcast/O&O companies have the highest exposure to such hotly contested races.
The hottest names this week were IHRT (953 bps better than the S&P), TGNA (304 bps), FOXA (276 bps), CHTR (95 bps), and BBGI (81 bps).
The hottest names this week were ETM (627 bps better than the S&P), CCO (597 bps), BBGI (589 bps), LAMR (326 bps), and GTN (231 bps).
The Sports Database lists the number of major pro and college games by network, and tallies the games by platform. It also includes the average viewership by sport, the top 100 shows of 2018, and lists the upcoming TV contracts up for renewal over the next several years.
Despite all the noise from whatever random blog you are reading (cordcutters.com, wehatethecableguy.com, or cordcuttingrulesaccordingtooneanalyst.com), it is still really hard – make that impossible – for the average sports fan to access live, in-market games outside of the bundle. Yes, you can stream a few here and there. Yes, you can access most of the NFL via an antenna. And if you happen to live in Florida but want to watch the Chicago Bulls, Bears and White Sox (like my Dad), you can pay a whopping $506 for a combination of the NFL Sunday Ticket, the NBA Team Pass, and MLB.tv. (Of course, these exclude all primetime games and any game where Chicago plays Florida). But, if you are an average sports fan, a) you likely engage with more than one sport; and b) you likely watch in-market games. In short – you’re stuck with Pay-TV.
With the end of a crazy earnings season, we finally had time to update our model for CABO’s acquisition of Fidelity Communications, which closed on 10/1. As a reminder, the company initially announced the acquisition of Fidelity Communications’ data, video and voice businesses for $526MM back in April at a 11.7x seller’s multiple and expected to reach $15MM of annual run-rate cost synergies within 3 years of closing. We also finally got some additional detail on Fidelity’s operations in an updated investor presentation published on 11/7 (the same day as CABO’s Q3 earnings report) – learning that as of 9/30, Fidelity had 72k residential HSD subs, 27k residential video subs, $122MM of annual revenue (“illustrative 2019 YTD”), 55% of revenue from residential HSD and commercial, $47MM of annual EBITDA (also “illustrative 2019 YTD”), and $21MM of annual EBITDA minus capex.
The hottest names this week were ETM (1,023 bps better than the S&P), CMLS (698 bps), BBGI (603 bps), WWE (449 bps), and DIS (398 bps).
We’ve finally had the time to digest the Q3 prints – for which we provide our observations and lessons learned. We also answer the question: “How can I make money from now until year-end?” as well as provide investor feedback now that we are through the last earnings cycle of 2019. Our note has a lot of cool charts – such as how each company did relative to Consensus expectations for Q3, and where Consensus estimates have gone up and gone down for both 2019 and 2020.
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