We conducted a 14-question follow-up survey to assess how consumers view Netflix and Disney+ now that Disney+ has been around a couple of months. Our motivation was to: 1) see how consumers’ views have changed since our last survey now that Disney+ launched; 2) get some hard data to better refine our Disney+ subscriber and ARPU estimates; & 3) quantify the potential ST & LT impact on NFLX’s domestic churn & ARPU.
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As many of you have already heard, Marci has taken the plunge and left Wall Street after an exemplary 17 years to join Comcast as Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. We wish her the absolute best of luck in this new chapter of her career.
As we have done in every even-numbered year since 2002 (which is exactly when Marci entered the sell-side at the young age of 17), we are digging into the upcoming political cycle to determine which geographies are likely to have the most hotly contested races; and which of our broadcast/O&O companies have the highest exposure to such hotly contested races.
The hottest names this week were IHRT (953 bps better than the S&P), TGNA (304 bps), FOXA (276 bps), CHTR (95 bps), and BBGI (81 bps).
ViacomCBS’s CEO Bob Bakish spoke at an Investor Conference today (12/9/19).
The hottest names this week were ETM (627 bps better than the S&P), CCO (597 bps), BBGI (589 bps), LAMR (326 bps), and GTN (231 bps).
The Sports Database lists the number of major pro and college games by network, and tallies the games by platform. It also includes the average viewership by sport, the top 100 shows of 2018, and lists the upcoming TV contracts up for renewal over the next several years.
Despite all the noise from whatever random blog you are reading (cordcutters.com, wehatethecableguy.com, or cordcuttingrulesaccordingtooneanalyst.com), it is still really hard – make that impossible – for the average sports fan to access live, in-market games outside of the bundle. Yes, you can stream a few here and there. Yes, you can access most of the NFL via an antenna. And if you happen to live in Florida but want to watch the Chicago Bulls, Bears and White Sox (like my Dad), you can pay a whopping $506 for a combination of the NFL Sunday Ticket, the NBA Team Pass, and MLB.tv. (Of course, these exclude all primetime games and any game where Chicago plays Florida). But, if you are an average sports fan, a) you likely engage with more than one sport; and b) you likely watch in-market games. In short – you’re stuck with Pay-TV.
After revisiting earnings commentary, we’re lowering our FOXA Cable affiliate fees. Following a brutal CQ3 earnings schedule, we finally had time to go back through the transcripts and pick apart the details. When it comes to FOXA, we realized the commentary around +7% affiliate fee growth in the Q&A included both the Cable AND TV segments, vs. our +7% for ONLY Cable affiliate fees. As a result, we lowered our Cable affiliate rev. in F’20 and F’21 – but separately reduced Cable expenses as well, which we felt were a bit high. Net net, our revenue only drops by ~0.5% in F’20 and ~1% in F’21, while our EBITDA and EPS estimates remain unchanged (see p. 2 for details).
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