We went through the entire 280-page S-4 (which was not easy since part of our team a.k.a. Marci is marketing in Boston), and just want to provide some perspective on the numbers since that is what everyone is talking about. First, we would highlight the charts on p. 5-8 that show the difference in each metric & year under the following scenarios: 1) CBS’s own standalone ests. vs. VIAB’s CBS standalone ests.; 2) CBS’s own standalone vs. Wolfe’s CBS; 3) VIAB’s own standalone vs. CBS’s VIAB standalone; 4) VIAB’s standalone vs. Wolfe’s VIAB; 5) PF Base Case (CBS’s ests. for both CBS & VIAB, and its $500MM cost synergies est.); 6) PF Bull Case (CBS’s own standalone, VIAB’s own standalone, & VIAB’s rev. AND cost synergies est. up to $1.7B); and 7) PF Bear Case (we use CBS & VIAB’s lower ests. for each other, and the prior $500MM cost synergy guide).
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SBGI’s CEO Chris Ripley spoke at an Investor Conference today (10/17/19).
Q3 subs were pretty darn close, coming in at 6.8MM vs. the 7MM guide. International was actually ahead by ~100K (please remind us why people pay for the clearly inaccurate data services), while domestic were 500K vs. the 800K guide (literally was due to 0.01% incremental churn). On the financial side, revenue was in-line while OI, EPS and FCF all beat nicely.
In this note, we remind you of the 4 transactions that TGNA closed this year as well as update our estimates. Specifically, we raise our as-reported 2019 rev./EBITDA by 5% each and 2020 rev./EBITDA by 17%/16%. We also raise our 2019/2020 blended FCF/share to $2.17 from $1.93. (We caveat that our new estimates include a lower sub number in Q4 related to T – we are incorporating this across the board as we update models). In general, we are 3-10% higher in revenue and EBITDA compared to Consensus, which we caveat is not completely updated for the recent transactions.
In this note, we remind you of the three transactions that SSP closed this year as well as update our model. We warn you upfront that this was messier than we had anticipated – partly because our base numbers for 2020 (both Local and National) came down mostly on higher expenses; and partly because SSP is realizing a temporary retrans dis-synergy related to the CW stations/channels it acquired from both Cordillera and NXST-TRCO. At the end of the day, we raise our as-reported 2019 revenue by 5% (we are in-line with Consensus) and 2020 revenue by 11% (5% above Consensus). But while we raise our as-reported 2019 EBITDA by 10% (1% above Consensus), we lower 2020 by 6% (2% below Consensus). The lower 2020 EBITDA numbers flowed through to the outer years, impacting our price target, which drops to $15 from $18. We maintain our Peer Perform.
We are raising our as-reported ‘19 and ‘20 ests for NXST now that the TRCO deal and related divestiture transactions have closed (9/19). At the end of the day, our 2019 revenue and EBITDA rise by 17% and 14%, respectively, and are now 13% and 8% above Consensus, respectively. Our 2020 revenue and EBITDA go up by 56% and 67%, respectively, and are 53% and 59% above Consensus, respectively. Importantly, our new numbers already incorporate the accelerated sub losses at T and likely DISH – which is an industry phenomenon, not NXST-specific. When it comes to PF ests., we would highlight our 2018/2019 FCF/sh. est. of $19.59 (vs. the $19.50 guide) and our 2019/2020 FCF/share estimate of $22.04 (vs. the $22 guide).
After being on the road most of this week (NYC meetings and the Midwest) and getting in way late last night, we wanted to share some of the lovely Media sentiment that will brighten your weekend….not.
The hottest names this week were CMLS (973 bps better than the S&P), IHRT (900 bps), CHTR (619 bps), OUT (463 bps), and NFLX (435 bps).
This note is totally not about FOX’s Smackdown debut (10/4) blowing away every expectation with 3.89MM total viewers – not only doubling Friday night’s #2 show (“Hawaii 5-0”), but also airing against the first MLB playoff game (Yanks won 10-4) AND with 3MM FOX households remaining dark on DISH (at least until yesterday – thanks in part to WWE). But we had to mention it….
DISCA hosted a conference call today (09/26/19) on its new streaming app called Food Network Kitchen. On the call were DISCA's CEO David Zaslav, its CEO of Global DTC Peter Faricy, CEO of Discovery International JB Perrette, and Amazon's SVP of Devices and Services Dave Limp.
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