A slide deck describing our updated fundamental outlook for the sector from our February Monthly Controversies report.
Search Coverage List, Models & Reports
Search Results1-10 out of 20
This 80p report covers the bull/bear case, current controversies, relative growth prospects and more for our 10 US & EU global pharmaceutical companies.
On Saturday afternoon (2/16/2019), MRK presented detailed results from its KEYNOTE-426 trial at ASCO-GU – earlier in the week partial details had been released. See Exhibit 1 for how results compare to BMY’s Opdivo/Yervoy (CM-214) and PFE/Merck KGaA’s Bacenvio/Inlyta (JAVELIN Renal 101). The bottom line is that despite strong MRK data, BMY’s already-approved Opdivo+Yervoy will still likely retain some share in its labeled indication in 1L renal cell carcinoma (RCC); PFE’s regimen may also capture some share, but to a smaller degree. MRK’s data has been an overhang on BMY shares.
On Tuesday (1/29/19) before the open, Pfizer (PFE) reported 4Q18 revenue and EPS that were mostly in-line with consensus.
PFE’s Q4 was about in-line with expectations; its EPS guidance for 2019 was lower than us/consensus, but this was not very surprising as the company had been messaging in recent days that it would be changing how it accounted for Other Income/Deductions, to the detriment of 2019 EPS. The focus of analysts on the conference call was broad, with an eye towards 2020 (will it grow or will it also be a challenged year? PFE said the latter), as well as both in-line brands and pipeline products. On the pipeline, the greatest focus was tanezumab (for pain; partnered with LLY) with several questions around the risk:benefit profile of the product. PFE (and LLY separately) continues to say it is excited about the opportunity, but at the same time it needs to see how additional trials report out later this year to better define the side effect of RPOA (we continue to have mixed views on the regulatory/commercial outlook for this product, given RPOA). On M&A, PFE made clear a point that it began to make almost a year ago – i.e. big deals are not likely, which is in-line with what we expected it to say (from a BMY perspective, this seemingly crosses two theoretical bidders off the list, with ABBV being the other). Overall, given PFE’s low valuation, shares should see downside support at current levels, and arguably PFE pipeline is better now than it has been in a long time.
PFE reported 4Q18 revenues of $13.98B vs. our estimate of $13.79B and consensus of $13.90B. PFE also reported 4Q18 EPS of $0.64 vs. our estimate of $0.64 and consensus of $0.63.
The Q4 2018 earnings season for our ten covered US/EU pharmaceutical companies is about to begin. It starts Thursday, January 24th with Bristol-Myers and ends Thursday, February 14th with AstraZeneca. This report contains our updated forecasts (out to 2028) and perspectives.
We track Emerging Markets growth rates for our covered companies. It has accelerated consistently since mid-2016; in Q3 2018 it was 11.6% y/y. From Q1 2012 to Q3 2018, y/y growth has been: 6.4% (10.3% (9.1% (9.5% (6.4% (10.3% (9.1% (9.5% (7.4% (6.1% (3.9% (9.5% (6.4% (8.3% (10.9% (8.0% (7.5% (4.7% (3.6% (3.2% (4.4% (1.8% (3.6% (3.3% (5.8% (6.1% (7.4% (7.5% (9.1% (9.5% (11.6% (Exhibit 1).
This report covers the bull/bear case, current controversies, relative growth prospects and more for our 10 US & EU global pharmaceutical companies.
GSK and PFE have announced they will combine their consumer health divisions into a joint venture, majority owned by GSK (68%). GSK says they JV will then be separated out as a stand-alone company within 3y.
- 1 of 2
- next →