This report covers the bull/bear case, current controversies, relative growth prospects and more for our 10 US & EU global pharmaceutical companies.
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Pfizer top-lined that a phase 2 proof of concept trial with its “Prevnar 20v” (an upgraded version of its on-market Prevnar-13v that adds coverage for 7 more strains into the mix) was positive. This disclosure occurred on a timeline previously given by the company (i.e. sometime in Q3).
A recap of our quarterly emerging markets report, with a specific focus on China, looking at the potential overhang faced by our coverage heading into 2020 and expansions of the “4+7” program.
We track Emerging Markets growth rates for our covered companies. It has accelerated consistently since mid-2016; in Q2 2019 it was 11.4% y/y. From Q1 2012 to Q2 2019, y/y growth has been: 6.4% →10.3% →9.1% →9.5% →7.4% →6.1% →3.9% →9.5% →6.4% →8.3% →10.9% →8.0% →7.5% →4.7% →3.6% →3.2% →4.4% →1.8% →3.6% →3.3% →5.8% →6.1% →7.4% →7.5% →9.1% →9.5% →11.6% →9.3% →13.3% →11.4% (Exhibit 1).
On Monday (07/30/19) before the open, Pfizer (PFE):
Reported 2Q19 results that were below consensus on revenues but beat on EPS. Results were originally scheduled for Tuesday.
Confirmed press reports over the weekend claiming that it would be combining its Upjohn division with Mylan (MYL) to form a new company that PFE shareholders will own 57% of. The companies held a joint conference call to discuss the proposal.
Saw its share price decline by ~3% (but this was followed by another ~6% decline on Tuesday).
Our assessment of the Upjohn-Mylan merger from the perspective of the Pfizer remainco.
Wolfe Research's Senior Pharma Analyst, Tim Anderson, and Senior Biotech & Spec Pharma Analyst, Akash Tewari, hosted a webcast to discuss the minimal amount PFE can give of Upjohn for this to be an atractive deal for MYL, what Upjohn's true revs and margin structure are when adjusted for accounting disclosures and LOE's, what NewCo's capital structure looks like going forward, and more.
Pfizer (PFE) and Mylan (MYL) held a joint conference call this morning (07/29/19) regarding the proposed Upjohn and MYL merger. While PFE shareholders will collectively receive a majority (57%) of the new MYL+Upjohn entity, it is essentially a new and different Mylan, even though the CEO will be coming from PFEs internal ranks. PFE will only have a minority position on the Board of Directors of newco, and operationally it is likely to have little to no influence.
These include new rules proposed by agencies like HHS, “executive order” by the President, and new legislation. Generally, the more substantive changes to drug pricing will require new legislation. Overall, there has been flux and uncertainty on what can be done. In terms of legislative proposals currently on the table, we understand the following items are under consideration and may have various levels of support from the drug industry, but exact details are lacking and predicting the outcome remains difficult:
It starts Thursday, July 18th with Novartis and ends Tuesday, July 30th with Eli Lilly, Merck, and Pfizer (all on the same day). This report contains our updated forecasts (to 2028) and perspectives.
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