The anti-PDx class of drugs represents a paradigm shift in terms of how cancer patients are managed, and it is a category supported by unprecedented levels of R&D investment by industry. While analyst forecasts for these drugs already sit at impressively high levels, there are still additional sources of upside to contemplate. The three that we commonly cite include: (1) moving anti-PDx therapies upstream in the management of cancer, from the metastatic to the “adjuvant” setting; (2) figuring out which combinations, with either existing cancer medicines or new ones in development, may make the anti-PDx’s even more effective; and (3) the potential under-modeling of the ex-US anti-PDx opportunity.
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On May 2nd, we hosted the 3rd conference call of our 2019 “Pipelines Unplugged” series with Dr. Roger Perlmutter, Executive Vice President & President of Merck Research Laboratories.
Wolfe Research's Senior Pharma analyst, Tim Anderson, hosted a “Pipelines Unplugged” webcast with Merck's Dr. Roger Perlmutter. Topics discussed included an update on phase 3 pipeline products: e.g. V114 (pneumococcal vaccine), gefapixant (chronic cough), vericiguat (heart failure); indication expansion opportunities in oncology that are "under-appreciated": Lynparza, Lenvima; an update on Keytruda/IO: adjuvant opportunity, other important newsflow in 2019; and the two or three mid-stage, "next on deck" compounds MRK is most excited about.
On Tuesday before the open, Merck (MRK):
Reported 1Q19 results that were above us/consensus on revenues and EPS.
Raised both FY2019 revenues and EPS guidance (but consensus already falls within these new ranges).
Saw its share price rise by ~2.5%.
Merck (MRK) reported 1Q19 financial results this morning that were strong. This report summarizes key takeaways from the conference call that go above and beyond information provided in the press release.
Our slides from the Wolfe Research Healthcare Biweekly Webcast covering POSEIDON and NEPTUNE, AZN’s off-the-radar 1L lung trials.
The Q1 2019 earnings season for our ten covered US/EU pharmaceutical companies is about to begin. It starts Wednesday, April 17th with Roche and ends Wednesday, May 1st with GlaxoSmithKline. This report contains our updated forecasts (out to 2028) and perspectives.
We track Emerging Markets growth rates for our covered companies. It has accelerated consistently since mid-2016; in Q4 2018 it was 9.3% y/y. From Q1 2012 to Q3 2018, y/y growth has been: 6.4% à10.3% à9.1% à9.5% à7.4% à6.1% à3.9% à9.5% à6.4% à8.3% à10.9% à8.0% à7.5% à4.7% à3.6% à3.2% à4.4% à1.8% à3.6% à3.3% à5.8% à6.1% à7.4% à7.5% à9.1% à9.5% à11.6% à 9.3% (Exhibit 1).
Our slides from the Wolfe Research Healthcare Biweekly Webcast, recapping our thoughts on: (1) MRK vs. PFE’s race for a next generation pneumococcal vaccine; and (2) key takeaways from our BMY “Pipelines Unplugged” conference call.
This 80p report covers the bull/bear case, current controversies, relative growth prospects and more for our 10 US & EU global pharmaceutical companies.
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