The anti-PDx class of drugs represents a paradigm shift in terms of how cancer patients are managed, and it is a category supported by unprecedented levels of R&D investment by industry. While analyst forecasts for these drugs already sit at impressively high levels, there are still additional sources of upside to contemplate. The three that we commonly cite include: (1) moving anti-PDx therapies upstream in the management of cancer, from the metastatic to the “adjuvant” setting; (2) figuring out which combinations, with either existing cancer medicines or new ones in development, may make the anti-PDx’s even more effective; and (3) the potential under-modeling of the ex-US anti-PDx opportunity.
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Our slides from the Wolfe Research Healthcare Biweekly Webcast covering POSEIDON and NEPTUNE, AZN’s off-the-radar 1L lung trials.
On Friday (04/26/19) before market open, AstraZeneca (AZN):
Reported solid 1Q19 results that beat us/consensus – product sales (+2%) and EPS (+5%) showed operating leverage.
Reiterated 2019 guidance.
Saw its share price decline by around 2-3% because of cash flow concerns.
AstraZeneca reported 1Q19 financial results this morning (4/26/19) and 2019 guidance that was solid. This report summarizes key takeaways from the conference call that just ended, that go above and beyond information provided in the press release.
AstraZeneca (AZN) announced solid 1Q19 financial results this morning (4/26/19) that beat us/consensus – product sales +14% CER (+2% ahead) and EPS showing operating leverage. AZN reported 1Q19 revenues of $5.49B vs. our $5.34B and consensus $5.36B; the beat was due to better Product Sales delivered this time by CVRM (19% CER) and Respiratory (+14% CER). Collaboration Revenue, formerly Externalization, was minimal at $26M. 1Q19 EPS of $0.89 was well ahead of our/consensus $0.85, achieved despite higher than expected Tax rate (+300bps), with improved Gross Margin (due to mix) a key lever.
The Q1 2019 earnings season for our ten covered US/EU pharmaceutical companies is about to begin. It starts Wednesday, April 17th with Roche and ends Wednesday, May 1st with GlaxoSmithKline. This report contains our updated forecasts (out to 2028) and perspectives.
We track Emerging Markets growth rates for our covered companies. It has accelerated consistently since mid-2016; in Q4 2018 it was 9.3% y/y. From Q1 2012 to Q3 2018, y/y growth has been: 6.4% à10.3% à9.1% à9.5% à7.4% à6.1% à3.9% à9.5% à6.4% à8.3% à10.9% à8.0% à7.5% à4.7% à3.6% à3.2% à4.4% à1.8% à3.6% à3.3% à5.8% à6.1% à7.4% à7.5% à9.1% à9.5% à11.6% à 9.3% (Exhibit 1).
This 80p report covers the bull/bear case, current controversies, relative growth prospects and more for our 10 US & EU global pharmaceutical companies.
Our updated thoughts on the BMY-CELG transaction, MRK numbers ahead of the quarter, and the opportunity in adjuvant IO from our 3/15 Wolfe Healthcare Biweekly Webcast.
A slide deck describing our updated fundamental outlook for the sector from our February Monthly Controversies report.
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