Our updated thoughts on the BMY-CELG transaction, MRK numbers ahead of the quarter, and the opportunity in adjuvant IO from our 3/15 Wolfe Healthcare Biweekly Webcast.
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A slide deck describing our updated fundamental outlook for the sector from our February Monthly Controversies report.
This 80p report covers the bull/bear case, current controversies, relative growth prospects and more for our 10 US & EU global pharmaceutical companies.
On Thursday before market open, AstraZeneca (AZN):
Reported decent 4Q18 results that were +1.5% ahead on revenues (actual: $6.42B vs. consensus: $6.31B) and well ahead on EPS (actual: $1.58 vs. consensus: $1.48) but a lower tax rate certainly helped.
Gave solid first-time 2019 guidance.
Saw its share price close up +7.5% (or +9.3% for the ADR). While happy to see an Outperform-rated stock rise, the magnitude of this move surprised us. It presumably speaks to concerns that were brewing about 2019 guidance.
AstraZeneca reported decent 4Q18 financial results this morning and gave first-time 2019 guidance that was solid. This report summarizes key takeaways from the conference call that just ended, that go above and beyond information provided in the press release.
AZN reported 4Q18 revenues of $6.42B, +1.5% ahead vs. our $6.31B and consensus $6.31B; the beat was due to better Product Sales (not Externalization!). 4Q18 EPS of $1.58 was well ahead of our $1.46 and consensus $1.48 - this was despite an operating income miss of $200M ($2.19B vs. our $2.39 and consensus $2.44) because of a low core tax rate 0.2%. Tagrisso sales of $594M beat our $572M and consensus $566M – this is a critical growth driver and will likely ultimately become AZN’s biggest product. Imfinzi and Lynparza were also strongly ahead.
The Q4 2018 earnings season for our ten covered US/EU pharmaceutical companies is about to begin. It starts Thursday, January 24th with Bristol-Myers and ends Thursday, February 14th with AstraZeneca. This report contains our updated forecasts (out to 2028) and perspectives.
We track Emerging Markets growth rates for our covered companies. It has accelerated consistently since mid-2016; in Q3 2018 it was 11.6% y/y. From Q1 2012 to Q3 2018, y/y growth has been: 6.4% (10.3% (9.1% (9.5% (6.4% (10.3% (9.1% (9.5% (7.4% (6.1% (3.9% (9.5% (6.4% (8.3% (10.9% (8.0% (7.5% (4.7% (3.6% (3.2% (4.4% (1.8% (3.6% (3.3% (5.8% (6.1% (7.4% (7.5% (9.1% (9.5% (11.6% (Exhibit 1).
On Monday (01/07/19) AZN announced that its R&D organization will be restructured. Included was also news that Dr. Jose Baselga, a well-known oncologist from the academic world, will be joining the company in a leadership role.
This report covers the bull/bear case, current controversies, relative growth prospects and more for our 10 US & EU global pharmaceutical companies.
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