A slide deck describing our updated fundamental outlook for the sector from our February Monthly Controversies report.
Search Coverage List, Models & Reports
Search Results1-10 out of 19
This 80p report covers the bull/bear case, current controversies, relative growth prospects and more for our 10 US & EU global pharmaceutical companies.
: Q4 performance was on the weaker end (EPS miss) and Humira came in a touch light. As a product that accounts for over 50% of total company revenues, this is naturally worrisome. More worrisome is that ABBV has revised down again its assumptions for EU biosimilar erosion – twice in a three month window. These revisions will make investors nervous that ABBV is under-calling the long-term impact of biosimilar erosion, beyond 2019, including in the US (2023) where Humira currently generates the majority of its sales. These downward revisions also reconfirm a trend what we have often seen among big pharma management teams, not limited to ABBV: i.e. under-estimating the declines with big, legacy franchise that start to roll over (e.g. GSK with Advair, Sanofi with Lantus).
AbbVie (ABBV) reported 4Q18 financial results this morning (1/25/19). This report summarizes key takeaways from the conference call that go above and beyond information provided in the press release.
AbbVie (ABBV) reported 4Q18 financial results this morning (1/25/19) – revenues were nearly in-line with consensus (and above our expectations) but EPS missed. Revenues were $8.31B vs. our estimate of $8.57B and consensus of $8.37B. EPS were $1.90 vs. our estimate of $1.95 and consensus of $1.94.
The Q4 2018 earnings season for our ten covered US/EU pharmaceutical companies is about to begin. It starts Thursday, January 24th with Bristol-Myers and ends Thursday, February 14th with AstraZeneca. This report contains our updated forecasts (out to 2028) and perspectives.
We track Emerging Markets growth rates for our covered companies. It has accelerated consistently since mid-2016; in Q3 2018 it was 11.6% y/y. From Q1 2012 to Q3 2018, y/y growth has been: 6.4% (10.3% (9.1% (9.5% (6.4% (10.3% (9.1% (9.5% (7.4% (6.1% (3.9% (9.5% (6.4% (8.3% (10.9% (8.0% (7.5% (4.7% (3.6% (3.2% (4.4% (1.8% (3.6% (3.3% (5.8% (6.1% (7.4% (7.5% (9.1% (9.5% (11.6% (Exhibit 1).
This report covers the bull/bear case, current controversies, relative growth prospects and more for our 10 US & EU global pharmaceutical companies.
The Medicare coverage gap, aka “donut hole”, has been a component of the Medicare Part D program since it was established in 2003. The presumed intent of the donut hole was to increase patients’ financial responsibility during some part of their care, with the hope that they would help contribute to making rational drug choice decisions. However, the enactment of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (the “ACA”) in 2010 has sought to undo this – it encompassed legislation to lower beneficiaries’ financial exposure, with the goal of eliminating it completely by 2020.
On Wednesday morning (12/12/18), JNJ (not covered, $146. 52) announced detailed results from its ECLIPSE study at ISDS. ECLIPSE, a phase 3 head-to-head trial comparing JNJ’s Tremfya (guselkumab, IL23) vs. NOVN’s Cosentyx (secukinumab, IL17) in psoriasis, is something we’ve tracked since early 2018 and has grown increasingly present on investors’ radars. We flagged this trial as a source of binary event risk ahead of NOVN when we reinitiated coverage in October, as we felt the chances of a positive outcome were likely skewed in JNJ’s favor (i.e. chose a primary endpoint where Tremfya had the highest probability of success).
- 1 of 2
- next →