On Wednesday morning (12/12/18), JNJ (not covered, $146. 52) announced detailed results from its ECLIPSE study at ISDS. ECLIPSE, a phase 3 head-to-head trial comparing JNJ’s Tremfya (guselkumab, IL23) vs. NOVN’s Cosentyx (secukinumab, IL17) in psoriasis, is something we’ve tracked since early 2018 and has grown increasingly present on investors’ radars. We flagged this trial as a source of binary event risk ahead of NOVN when we reinitiated coverage in October, as we felt the chances of a positive outcome were likely skewed in JNJ’s favor (i.e. chose a primary endpoint where Tremfya had the highest probability of success).
Search Coverage List, Models & Reports
Search Results11-20 out of 66
On November 29th, we hosted the last conference call of our 2018 Pipelines Unplugged series (and our first one at Wolfe). We hosted five members from GSK’s R&D senior leadership team. The body of this note is a comprehensive recap of the call.
In our conversations with investors downstream of launch, we’ve learned just how “off the radar” this remains. In this report we describe the Gardasil opportunity ahead. As part of our diligence we spoke with Mike Nally, President of Merck Global Vaccines.
Roche held an investor conference all this afternoon to highlight data presented at this year’s American Society of Hematology (ASH) annual meeting.
On Monday (12/03/18), GSK announced it is acquiring oncology company Tesaro for ~$5B. This comes from a company who back in 2014 took moves to exit oncology through an asset swap with Novartis – a decision that always seemed strange to us, and one that GSK highly likely regrets. TSRO has been a stock that has struggled in the face of competition to its lead asset, Zejula, a PARP inhibitor currently approved for ovarian cancer. TSRO has three other oncology pipeline assets that are more peripheral to the story, but they offer upside optionality should they hit – expectations on these are understandably low at the moment.
Wolfe Research's Senior Pharma analyst, Tim Anderson, hosted one of his “Pipelines Unplugged” fireside chats with senior R&D management from GlaxoSmithKline. Speakers from GSK included Dr. Hal Barron (Chief Scientific Officer and President R&D), Dr. John Pottage (Chief Scientific and Medical Officer, ViiV), Dr. Emmanual Hanon (SVP R&D, Vaccines), Dr. Axel Hoos (SVP, Therapeutic Area Head, Oncology R&D), and Dr. John Lepore (SVP Research).
We recently wrote a brief investor update on the investment case for BMY (BMY: Summarizing the Investment Case). In it, we said that it is time to move on from the idea that Opdivo+Yervoy in lung cancer is going to work. This is because the totality of the evidence thus far (from both BMY and AZN) has been that anti-CTLA4 therapies just don’t seem to do much in this particular tumor type. A bearish view on CTLA4 is not a thesis change for us, but for many of the former “bulls” on the stock it has been, and it is one of the reasons BMY shares have struggled.
On November 19th, we published a report (Global Pharmaceuticals - Removal of "Protected Drug Class" Status Coming?) claiming that the Administration may seek to change language related to the six “protected drug classes” in the near-term. Proposed changes have just been released (along with other proposals aimed at helping to manage healthcare spending; not addressed in this report). These proposals are not finalized, meaning it is not clear what ultimately survives the comment period that comes next; implementation would likely begin in 2020.
Presently, six classes of drugs are protected from aggressive formulary management in Medicare Part D plans. This “protected drug class” policy came into effect in 2003 when Medicare Part D was first established.
On Oct 22nd we re-initiated coverage on BMY with an Outperform rating, the first time we have been constructive in many years.