Slides detailing our moderately constructive view of the sector and company-specific thoughts across our ten covered EU/US names
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Wolfe Research's Senior Pharma analyst, Tim Anderson, hosted a webcast to discuss his December 2019 issue of his Monthly Controversies report, which includes his overall view of the secotr (moderately constructive at current levels) and the bull/bear case, upcoming events, and near- and long-term outlook for each of his ten covered US/EU names.
On November 22nd, we hosted the 9th and final conference call of our 2019 “Pipelines Unplugged” series with three members of the Roche/Genentech R&D leadership team: Dr. Alan Sandler, SVP and Global Head of Product Development, Oncology, Solid Tumors; Dr. Nancy Valente, SVP Head Hematology Development, Genentech; and Dr. Mathew Pletcher, Head of Rare Diseases (ad interim).
This report covers the bull/bear case, current controversies, relative growth prospects and more for our 10 US & EU global pharmaceutical companies.
MDCO shares have embedded substantial take-out speculation for some time already, under the assumption that inclisiran would help beef up any company’s existing presence in cardiovascular medicine. It has commonly been talked about that Novartis may be its suitor, but between MDCO’s current valuation and the fact that Novartis already has many new drug launches underway (although not in CV medicine), we felt such a move by Novartis was unlikely.
Wolfe Research's Senior Pharma analyst, Tim Anderson, hosted a “Pipelines Unplugged” webcast with Roche's Dr. Nancy Valente, VP of Global Product Development, Hematology/Oncology and Head, Hematology Development at Genentech; Dr. Alan Sandler, SVP of Global Head of Product Development and Oncology - Solid Tumors; and Dr. Mathew Pletcher, Head of Rare Disease. Topics discussed included an update on phase 3 pipeline products, meaningful indication expansion opportunities, and what mid-stage, "next on deck" compounds the company is most excited about.
We track Emerging Markets growth rates for our covered companies. It has accelerated consistently since mid-2016; in Q3 2019 it was 17.2% y/y.
AZN held a conference call this morning to discuss anifrolumab phase 3 data that was presented on Monday/Tuesday at the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) conference. Company management and two KOLs led the discussion, followed by analyst Q&A. A complex subject, given the mixed trial results, but admirably presented here. Understandably most of the questions related to regulatory filing, but AZN broadcast confidence, highlighting unmet need and consistency of effect (BICLA, skin, OCS reduction). We agree: anifrolumab is likely to be approved on the current evidence, but long-term safety (concerns about malignancy were raised) is an area to watch for update. We continue to believe that for AZN investors, expectations on anifrolumb embed a degree of regulatory risk, and that the upside:downside with this program still skews to the upside. But given the low treatment rate with biologics (9%, according to AZN), sales must come from driving treatment rates higher rather than displacement of Benlysta. We continue to find AZN a compelling story, driven by best-in-class growth (by a wide margin) where it is hard to articulate major sources of downside risk – in this context, anifrolumab’s importance to the story is only smaller, in our view. We rate AZN Outperform.For more information on AZN and other US/EU stocks we cover, see: Global Pharmaceuticals - September 2019 Issue of "Monthly Controversies" Report.
Roche held a conference call on Tuesday (11/12/19) to highlight Gazyva in lupus nephritis following presentation of the ph2 NOBILITY trial at ACR on Sunday. The data had been top-lined previously, followed by partial released in abstract form. It is impressive data and one reason we recently stepped up our Gazyva forecasts in our post-Q3 ROG model; and as ROG notes, the unmet need in LN is high given morbidity/mortality associated with the condition (we discussed this data recently with a top KOL as part of work on AZN’s phase 3 (for extra-renal lupus) anifrolumab, and he was impressed).
A recap of the "fireside chats" we hosted with ABBV, BMY, and NOVN at the inaugural Wolfe Healthcare conference as well as a higher-level summary of our thoughts on the global pharma space.