Our updated thoughts on the BMY-CELG transaction, MRK numbers ahead of the quarter, and the opportunity in adjuvant IO from our 3/15 Wolfe Healthcare Biweekly Webcast.
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BMY held a meeting with sell-side analysts on Friday morning – the meeting was called in a semi-urgent fashion, with notice only going out on Weds. While not stated directly, the intent was clear: to drum up support for the proposed CELG acquisition given some recent, high profile, dissenting shareholder opinions.
A slide deck describing our updated fundamental outlook for the sector from our February Monthly Controversies report.
Our updated thoughts on the BMY-CELG transaction from our 3/1 Wolfe Healthcare Biweekly Webcast.
News that investment management firm Wellington does not support the proposed acquisition of CELG by BMY dovetails well with results from our recent investor survey (Global Pharmaceuticals - BMY-CELG Investor Sentiment Survey Results) and our own views. Our position in recent weeks has been that while we are not in favor of the deal, we still believe the risk:reward with BMY shares is favorable at current levels.
This 80p report covers the bull/bear case, current controversies, relative growth prospects and more for our 10 US & EU global pharmaceutical companies.
Given the mixed reaction to BMY’s proposed acquisition of CELG, we conducted a survey of 112 investors to better gauge investor sentiment.
On Saturday afternoon (2/16/2019), MRK presented detailed results from its KEYNOTE-426 trial at ASCO-GU – earlier in the week partial details had been released. See Exhibit 1 for how results compare to BMY’s Opdivo/Yervoy (CM-214) and PFE/Merck KGaA’s Bacenvio/Inlyta (JAVELIN Renal 101). The bottom line is that despite strong MRK data, BMY’s already-approved Opdivo+Yervoy will still likely retain some share in its labeled indication in 1L renal cell carcinoma (RCC); PFE’s regimen may also capture some share, but to a smaller degree. MRK’s data has been an overhang on BMY shares.
On Thursday before market open, AstraZeneca (AZN):
Reported decent 4Q18 results that were +1.5% ahead on revenues (actual: $6.42B vs. consensus: $6.31B) and well ahead on EPS (actual: $1.58 vs. consensus: $1.48) but a lower tax rate certainly helped.
Gave solid first-time 2019 guidance.
Saw its share price close up +7.5% (or +9.3% for the ADR). While happy to see an Outperform-rated stock rise, the magnitude of this move surprised us. It presumably speaks to concerns that were brewing about 2019 guidance.
AstraZeneca reported decent 4Q18 financial results this morning and gave first-time 2019 guidance that was solid. This report summarizes key takeaways from the conference call that just ended, that go above and beyond information provided in the press release.
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