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We wanted to flag a few highlights in today's (07/09/19) Wolfe Research Auto Daily....
Reuters battery article highlights disconnect between CO2 commentary and reality
VW Purchasing Chief clarifies that co-investing will be required to secure battery supply. And another data point that makes 7%-8% EV adoption targets for 2020 / 2021 seem almost impossible.
Geely guidance cut highlights concerns about China
Geely cut 2019 delivery guidance by 10% and issued a profit warning, underscoring concerns about the China market.
Manheim Q2 Call: Used Pricing Remains Strong in June, and Used Retail Sales Outlook More Positive than Expected
Generally strong used pricing, modest retail used vehicle sales growth in 2019 and 2020, and plateauing off-lease were our key takes from Manheim’s quarterly call.
We wanted to flag a few highlights in today's (07/03/19) Wolfe Research Auto Daily....
U.S. Sales annualized at 17.3 MM for June, a bit better than our 17.0 MM estimate.
June LV SAAR came in above our (and JD Power) estimates, with annualized large truck sales and share tracking well above YTD averages. See our takeaways within.
Tesla reported blow-out Q2 deliveries of 95,200
We believe that US Model 3 deliveries more than doubled, making Q1 look like an aberration and putting 7k per week volume back in play. Model S and Model X also better-than-expectations but likely due to discounting. Demand looks to be on solid footing but major upside still requires a return to the 2nd Half of 2018 margin profile, something we don’t see as likely in the near-term.
Does very soft June production in Germany suggest downside to 2Q IHS production expectations?
Very soft German auto production in June could point to potential downside versus the (already weak) IHS 2Q19 Europe production forecast of -6.9%
Another very weak month for NA Truck Orders points to a sharp reduction in 2H19 & 2020 builds
The latest data on NA Class 8 Truck orders remains weak (Class 8 down 70% y/y in June; Class 5-7 down 30%), further pointing to a sharp production decline in 2020. We assess implications for our Suppliers.
We wanted to flag a few highlights in today's (06/26/19) Wolfe Research Auto Daily....
Tesla update: Demand outlook better, but profitability not likely enough to drive major upside
US Model 3 volumes may double in Q2 vs Q1 which takes severe downside risk off the table in our view. But major upside in the shares will require substantial free cash flow and Model S / Model X volumes remain too low for that.
17 MM SAAR. Retail is down. But large pickups are strong once again
Based on our survey we estimate the June LV SAAR will come in at approximately 17.0MM, down from 17.2MM last year and the 17.3MM pace last month. This month’s sales are somewhat supported by Fleet sales... with retail tracking down 4%. Pricing, mix, and pickups all look strong.
Interesting tidbits from UAW
We continue to gather comments from our labor contacts ahead of UAW negotiations which kick off next month. Though the risk of a strike may be low, there’s no question that these negotiations will be more contentious than 2011 or 2015.
A series of mgmt. comments has led the Street to conclude that Q2 volume will be much better than originally feared (we expect 85k-90k vs our 82k forecast). Importantly, our analysis indicates US Model 3 volumes may have doubled sequentially which makes shockingly low Q1 look like an aberration. And more importantly, we believe that there is a positive read-through for other markets that will need to move from "reservation list" demand to steady state. We also provide evidence that US M3 avg selling price remains in the $50k range which supports 20% gross margins, better than expected.
We wanted to flag a few highlights in today's Wolfe Research Auto Daily....
What does Renault / Nissan’s partnership with Waymo mean?
Renault / Nissan deal with Waymo likely just a way to keep a close eye on the potential disruptors. Involvement in shaping the regulatory environment could pay dividends when self-driving vehicles are eventually low-cost enough to sell to consumers.
Tesla Model S continues to post strong residual values in 2019
It’s been a rough year for Tesla Model S new volumes but continued very strong pricing on used Model S supports the potential for a rebound, in our view. And the fact that a 3-year old Model S transacts well-above the price of a new Model 3 argues against the cannibalization theory.
We wanted to flag a few highlights in today's (06/05/19) Wolfe Research Auto Daily....
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