Search Coverage List, Models & Reports
Search Results1-10 out of 363
We’ve been writing about unprecedented declines in used vehicle prices over the last couple weeks. Today we present a data set that reflects hundreds of vehicles offered at auction. Last week’s conversion rates (i.e. the % of vehicles at auction that were actually sold) declined to 43% vs. 65% one month ago. And of the vehicles sold, 90% were sold below expected market value (average was 12% below market prices observed the past 30-60 days).
In a report out today, we explore the level of cash burn while US facilities are not operating. Bottom-line is Tesla has plenty of liquidity to withstand a 6+ month shutdown…far beyond what we think is likely. We also take a stab at revised estimates, which assume that a weakened consumer leads to lower volumes, although we see several reasons that Tesla volumes will hold up better than most.
JD Power provided an update on their U.S. Auto Sales outlook in a presentation yesterday. The presentation included interesting datapoints illustrating the magnitude of declines in new and used vehicle sales over the past few weeks. Notably they expect April to come in softer than March. And surprisingly, used is weakening even more than New. JDP shares our concerns about falling used prices, and they see elevated dealer inventories as a headwind to a production recovery later this year.
We wanted to flag a few highlights in today's (03/25/20) Wolfe Research Auto Daily....
The breadth and slope of the decline in global economic activity post COVID-19 is unprecedented. For Autos, while there is still relatively little visibility into the intermediate term outlook, there is a growing view within the Industry that the pattern of declines globally will mirror that which was experienced in China. We’ve been seeing this in Europe. And our contacts suggest that a similar pattern is emerging in the U.S. We are lowering our Global Auto Production forecast for 2020 to -20%. Embedded within this is a U.S. Light Vehicle Sales assumption of 12 million (down from 17 million in 2019), in-line with the 10-12 million unit “guestimate” that we’ve heard from Industry contacts.
- 1 of 37
- next →