This week our WR Banks & Brokers Index was up +2% WoW, outpacing the S&P 500 by 100bps but tracking largely in line with the S&P Fins. (~2%), with clear winner JPM (+6%) boosted by an impressive FY1Q19 print. BAC (+4%), MS (+4%) and STT (+4%) were the other notable outperformers, with BAC / MS benefiting from the positive readacross from JPM earnings (see first look). WFC was the notable laggard this week (-5%) following a weak core print and more conservative NII growth outlook (see slide 4), with NTRS (-1%) and EVR (+1%) rounding out the rest of the bottom three. Looking at the YTD leaderboard, SF (+42%), EVR (+33%) and Citi (+30%) remain at the top, with WFC (+1%), LAZ (+5%) and SCHW (+9%) rounding out the bottom three.
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1-10 out of 32 Posted on April 15, 2019
Filed under: Steven Chubak, Diversified Banks & Brokers, M&A Independents, EVR, LAZ, Retail Brokers, AMTD, ETFC, LPLA, RJF, SCHW, SF, Universal & Trust Banks, BAC, BK, C, GS, JPM, MS, NTRS, STT, WFC
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Posted on April 8, 2019
Filed under: Steven Chubak, Diversified Banks & Brokers, M&A Independents, EVR, LAZ, Retail Brokers, AMTD, ETFC, LPLA, RJF, SCHW, SF, Universal & Trust Banks, BAC, BK, C, GS, JPM, MS, NTRS, STT, WFC
Our WR Banks & Brokers Index was up +5% WoW, which we note continues to outpace both the S&P 500 (+2%) and S&P Fins. (+3%). Strength was driven by robust performance across SF (+9%), MS (+6), and RJF (+6%), with WFC (+1%), BK (+1%) and EVR (+3%) the biggest laggards. Following the strong week, our WR Bank / Broker index is now tracking in line with the broader market YTD (+15%) and ~400bps ahead of the S&P Fins. (+11%). SF (+39%), EVR (+31%), and Citi (+26%) still atop the leaderboard, followed by GS (+21%), LPLA (+18%) and BAC (+18%). LAZ (+3%) and AMTD (+6%) remain in the bottom three joined by new-entrant WFC (+6%) in place of SCHW (+7%) as investors remain wary on the name following the recent leadership shake-up (see slide 11). For folks looking to get a sense of how our coverage has been trading from a technical perspective, we would urge investors to look at Technical Analyst Rob Ginsberg’s excellent work on the space.
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Posted on April 1, 2019
Filed under: Steven Chubak, Diversified Banks & Brokers, M&A Independents, EVR, LAZ, Retail Brokers, AMTD, ETFC, LPLA, RJF, SCHW, SF, Universal & Trust Banks, BAC, BK, C, GS, JPM, MS, NTRS, STT, WFC
Our WR Banks & Brokers Index was up +2% WoW, outpacing the gains in both the S&P 500 (+1%) and S&P Fins. (+1%). The biggest laggards this week were WFC (flat) and BK (flat), with Wells lagging following the announcement of CEO Tim Sloan’s retirement. The outperformers this week were RJF (+5%), ETFC (+3%), SF ( +3%), and EVR (+3%), which we attribute to optimism surrounding favorable 1Q earnings setup for RJF and ETFC in particular (see our preview). YTD trends remain less encouraging as our WR Bank / Broker index (+10%) continues to lag the broader market (+13%), with SF (+27%), EVR (+27%), and Citi (+20%) still atop the leaderboard, whereas LAZ (-2%), AMTD (+2%), and SCHW, (+3%) remain at the bottom of the pack.
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Posted on March 27, 2019
Filed under: Steven Chubak, Diversified Banks & Brokers, M&A Independents, EVR, LAZ, Retail Brokers, AMTD, ETFC, LPLA, SF, Universal & Trust Banks, BAC, BK, C, GS, JPM, MS, NTRS, STT, WFC
1Q has been a bit of a roller coaster ride. The initial setup was looking good for stock-pickers, as our WR Bank & Broker Index meaningfully outperformed out of the gate with significant performance dispersion across the group. But as we got deeper into 1Q, investor optimism started to wane as revenue cracks emerged: IB activity stalled due to the government shutdown; trading failed to keep pace with tough year-ago comps; and a more dovish Fed weighed on NIM expectations. Even the strong equity market rally prompted mixed feedback as this resulted in significant declines in higher-yielding client cash. Following the strong start to 2019, the banks / brokers have since erased those early gains, prompting the all-important question…
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Posted on March 25, 2019
Filed under: Steven Chubak, Diversified Banks & Brokers, M&A Independents, EVR, LAZ, Retail Brokers, AMTD, ETFC, LPLA, RJF, SCHW, SF, Universal & Trust Banks, BAC, BK, C, GS, JPM, MS, NTRS, STT, WFC
Just a brutal week for our WR Banks & Brokers Index which meaningfully underperformed (-6% WoW), tracking well behind the S&P 500 (-1%) and the S&P Fins. (-5%). The biggest laggards this week were AMTD (-10%), ETFC (-8%), SCHW (-8%), BAC (-8%), and LPLA (-8%) as the Fed’s dovish remarks weighed disproportionately on more asset sensitive financials. Following this week’s selloff YTD performance for the WR Bank / Broker index (+8%) is now lagging the broader market (+12%), and while the leaderboard remains largely the same, including SF (+24%), EVR (+23%), and Citi (+17%), the bottom of the pack has changed somewhat and now includes some of the eBrokers (AMTD +2%, SCHW +1%), in addition to LAZ (-3%).
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Posted on March 18, 2019
Filed under: Steven Chubak, Diversified Banks & Brokers, M&A Independents, EVR, LAZ, Retail Brokers, AMTD, ETFC, LPLA, RJF, SCHW, SF, Universal & Trust Banks, BAC, BK, C, GS, JPM, MS, NTRS, STT, WFC
Our WR Banks & Brokers Index rebounded nicely this week (+320bps WoW), tracking slightly ahead of the S&P 500 (~290bps) and the S&P Fins. (~300bps). Share performance across the group was strong, with NTRS (+6%), Citi (+5%), MS (+5%), and ETFC (+5%), and SCHW (+5%) the top performers, while AMTD (+1%), GS (+1%), LAZ (+1%), and EVR (+2%) the notable laggards. WR top performers YTD remain SF (+34%), EVR (+26%), and Citi (+25%), reflecting strong 4Q18 results and positive EPS momentum, with LAZ (-2%), MS (+9%), and SCHW (+9%) still underperforming following mixed 4Q18 results / conservative earnings guidance.
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Posted on March 12, 2019
Filed under: Steven Chubak, Diversified Banks & Brokers, Retail Brokers, ETFC
We recently had the opportunity to host Michael Pizzi, EVP & COO of E*TRADE for a fireside chat at the Wolfe Research FinTech Forum in NYC. Below are our key takeaways:
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Posted on March 11, 2019
Filed under: Steven Chubak, Diversified Banks & Brokers, M&A Independents, EVR, LAZ, Retail Brokers, AMTD, ETFC, LPLA, RJF, SCHW, SF, Universal & Trust Banks, BAC, BK, C, GS, JPM, MS, NTRS, STT, WFC
Our WR Banks & Brokers Index was down ~430bps WoW, tracking below the S&P (-220bps) and the S&P Fins. (-270bps). Share performance was quite weak, with ETFC (-7%), SCHW (-7%), STT (-6%), and LPLA (-6%) the clear laggards, while WFC (-1%), JPM (-1%), and GS (-1%) shares held in better than the rest of our coverage. Despite the disappointing week, YTD performance remains strong as top performers including SF (+28%), EVR (+23%), and Citi (+19%) continue to be buoyed by strong 4Q18 results, with LAZ (-3%), MS (+4%), and SCHW (+5%) still underperforming following mixed 4Q18 results / conservative earnings guidance.
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Posted on March 4, 2019
Filed under: Steven Chubak, Diversified Banks & Brokers, M&A Independents, EVR, LAZ, Retail Brokers, AMTD, ETFC, LPLA, RJF, SCHW, SF, Universal & Trust Banks, BAC, BK, C, GS, JPM, MS, NTRS, STT, WFC
Weekly Market Performance Recap: WR Banks & Brokers Index Tracking Better than the Broader Market. Our WR Banks & Brokers Index was up +110bps WoW, tracking ahead of the S&P (+40bps) and S&P Fins. (+80bps). Share performance was reasonably bifurcated, with LAZ (+5%) and ETFC (+3%) relative outperformers, while SF (-1%), BK (-1%) and JPM (-1%) were the biggest laggards. Top performers YTD remain firms with strong 4Q results including SF (+34%), EVR (+31%) and Citi (+24%), with LAZ (+4%), JPM (+7%) and MS (+7%) still lagging following mixed 4Q18 results / conservative earnings guidance.
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Posted on February 25, 2019
Filed under: Steven Chubak, Diversified Banks & Brokers, M&A Independents, EVR, LAZ, Retail Brokers, AMTD, ETFC, LPLA, RJF, SCHW, SF, Universal & Trust Banks, BAC, BK, GS, JPM, MS, NTRS, STT, WFC
Our WR Banks & Brokers Index was up 30bps WoW, tracking largely in with the broader market (+60bps) and S&P Fins. (+10bps). Share performance was mixed, with SF (+3%), ETFC (+3%) and STT (+2%) outpacing the rest of our coverage, while GS (-1%), JPM (-1%) and LAZ (-1%) were the biggest laggards. Looking at YTD performance, the clear winners continue to be firms which delivered standout 4Q results including SF (+35%), EVR (+28%), and LPLA (+26%); the biggest laggards remain WFC (+6%), MS (+5%) and LAZ (-1%) following mixed 4Q18 results, and in the case of LAZ, disappointing 2019 guidance.
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