This week our WR Banks & Brokers Index was down -1% WoW, lagging the S&P 500 and S&P Fins. by 100bps. C (+3%) and BAC (+2%) were our relative outperformers, with Citi benefitting from WoW estimate revisions (+1%). STT (-2%) saw estimates revise down by -3% following guidance on NII, and it joins the eBrokers (-3%) as our relative laggards following disappointing monthly metrics. LPLA (+37%), SF (+37%), and C (+30%) continue to outperform the rest of our coverage YTD, while STT (-12%), LAZ (-9%), and BK (-5%) remain our worst performers.
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This week our WR Banks & Brokers Index was up 5% WoW, offsetting last week’s decline of -5%, and outperformed the S&P 500 and S&P Fins. by 100bps. EVR (+14%) and LAZ (+10%) were relative outperformers, while we expect this trend within our coverage to continue for EVR, we do not have the same view on LAZ, which has garnered interesting feedback that we address on slide 4. Our relative underperformers this week were RJF (+1) and STT (+2%); we were surprised by the recent underperformance at RJF and go into further detail on slide 6. YTD performance ranking among the top three remained unchanged with LPLA (+37%) closely followed by SF (+36%), and C (+26%). LAZ benefited from a strong week but still remains in our bottom three per YTD performance (-7%), nestled in between STT (-10%) and BK (-6%).
This week our WR Banks & Brokers Index was down -5% WoW, lagging the S&P 500 (-3%) and S&P Fins. (-3%). Relative outperformers within our coverage include Citi and JPM which both preformed in line with the broader market (-3%). We explore Citi in greater detail on slide 5 which provides some context on this relative outperformance. The remainder of our coverage underperformed the market by 100-300bps with LAZ, EVR, LPLA, BAC, STT, and BK all at the lower end of the range. YTD trends remained consistent with LPLA maintaining pole position (+31%), followed by SF (+29%) and C (+19%). LAZ (-16%), STT (-12%), and BK (-9%) continue to increase distance from the rest of our coverage and solidify spots as the bottom three relative underperformers.
This week our WR Banks & Brokers Index was down -1% WoW, tracking largely in line with the S&P 500 (-1%) but lagging the S&P Fins. (flat). Relative outperformers within our coverage include LPLA (+5%), which benefited nicely from a strong showing at investor day (see note), as well as RJF (+3%), which likely benefited from the new disclosure provided in April's monthly metrics release (we explore this in greater detail on slide 4). LAZ was the key laggard this week, down (-4%) WoW. Overall, we saw modest reshuffling around the YTD performance league table, with LPLA (+39%) now leading the group followed by SF (+36%) and C (+24%). LAZ (-10%), STT (-7%), and BK (-4%) continue to languish in the bottom three, and given our less constructive 2Q earnings outlooks for each firm, we expect this group to remain the biggest laggards among in coverage.
Ahead of Conference Season, We Updated Our Question Bank for Investors. Conference season is upon us, with a number of upcoming financials conferences over the next several weeks. To help investors prepare for company presentations / 1x1 meetings, we have updated our question bank, with the following pages outlining 10 key questions for each company on a number of key themes.
This week our WR Banks & Brokers Index was down -4% WoW, lagging both the S&P 500 by 300bps and the S&P Fins. by 200bps. AMTD was the relative winner this week, down -1%, with LPLA (-2%), GS (-2%) and JPM (-2%) rounding out the rest of the top relative outperformers, showcasing just how tough this week was in terms of share performance as trade tensions weighed on the space. The M&A boutiques were the weakest performers in our coverage once again as EVR and LAZ were down -9% and -6% WoW, respectively, with STT (-7%) and SCHW (-6%) the other relative laggards. YTD trends remain consistent with last week’s Chu (see report) as our top three performers remain SF (+38%), LPLA (+32%), and C (+25%), with GS (+18%) overtaking EVR (+15%) for the fourth spot. LAZ (-6%), STT (-4%), BK (-2%), and WFC (-1%) are all still in the bottom four.
Wolfe Research Senior Diversified Banks & Brokers Analyst, Steven Chubak, hosted a webcast to discuss 2019 stressed losses and payout capacity by bank, who is best/worst positioned for positive payout surprise, SCB lens: implications for capital requirements beyond 2019, and which banks look best in a post-SCB world.
Bank Stress Test (CCAR) season is now upon us and we have started to see a meaningful pickup in investor inbound. Most of the questions have focused on payouts for the upcoming 2019 CCAR cycle and which firms appear most at risk. While our proprietary payout analysis suggests that payouts for some firms could fall modestly below our forecasts (JPM, BAC), the impact to earnings is de minimis and should have limited impact on shares. We are much more focused on the level of stressed losses (aka, Stressed Capital Buffer or SCB) as this will dictate bank capital requirements likely beginning in the 2020 CCAR cycle and thus has much greater implications for future bank ROEs. We explore this topic in greater detail in this report, but wanted to flag some key highlights.
Our WR Banks & Brokers Index is up +2% WoW, outperforming both the S&P 500 (flat) and the S&P Fins. (+1%). Our coverage closed 1Q earnings with strong prints from both SF and LPLA, with the clear winner being LPLA which is up +14% WoW, with shares up +13% on 5/3 alone. Joining LPLA in this week’s top performers are AMTD (+3%), SCHW (+3%), and BK (+3%), which we note all recovered nicely following last week’s tough tape. Our worst performers this week were LAZ (-2%) and EVR (-2%), as negative sentiment across the space continues to wear on M&A Boutiques, particularly following a rough print from GHL. Looking to YTD trends, our top three performers include SF (+44%), LPLA (+37%), and Citi (+36%), with WFC (+6%), LAZ (+5%), STT (+7%) and BK(+6%) languishing in the bottom four.
Our WR Banks & Brokers Index is up only +20bps WoW after a tougher earnings week, lagging the S&P 500 and the S&P Fins. by 80bps. Performance by name was rather mixed, with NTRS (+6%) and LAZ (+4%) the clear winners as 1Q earnings results surprised quite positively and came in much better relative to peers. EVR shares also saw some solid WoW growth (+3%), though we note this was dampened by the disappointing core print (see recap). Worst performers this week were STT (-4%) and AMTD (-3%) given disappointing 1Q earnings and more cautious outlook commentary, respectively. GS (-1%) was among the laggards following recent 1MDB developments, though we believe investor reaction is unwarranted (see note and slide 11). Looking at YTD trends, our top three performers remain SF (+41%), EVR (+35%), and Citi (+34%), with STT (+6%) joining BK (+3%) and WFC (+4%) in the bottom three.
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