This week our WR Banks & Brokers Index was flat WoW, in line with the S&P Fins. with both lagging the S&P 500 by 200bps. We received a healthy amount of inbound on the relative outperformance from LAZ (+6%) and underperformance at LPLA (-4%) this week. We dug into these names and provide insight to this weeks performance and outlook heading into 2Q print on slides 9-10. The YTD leaderboard remains largely consistent with SF +36%, LPLA +32%, and C +31% continuing to outperform our coverage and STT -12%, BK -8%, and LAZ -3% remaining our bottom three.
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The Fed published 2019 DFAST results this afternoon. Results were extremely positive, with all firms remaining well above minimum capital and leverage requirements (see Ex. 7 for a summary of results). Bottom line: Our DFAST screen (see file here) suggests that payouts for the US G-SIBs are poised to move higher, with the greatest room for positive surprise at NTRS, GS and STT relative to cons. Estimated stress capital buffers (SCBs) also came down across all the US G-SIBs, with our estimates suggesting the firms remain in strong excess capital positions even under the future SCB regime. Given these positive results, we would expect the entire group to react well on Monday.
This model provides a summary plug n’ play for the upcoming 2019 DFAST.
This week our WR Banks & Brokers Index was down -1% WoW, lagging the S&P 500 and S&P Fins. by 100bps. C (+3%) and BAC (+2%) were our relative outperformers, with Citi benefitting from WoW estimate revisions (+1%). STT (-2%) saw estimates revise down by -3% following guidance on NII, and it joins the eBrokers (-3%) as our relative laggards following disappointing monthly metrics. LPLA (+37%), SF (+37%), and C (+30%) continue to outperform the rest of our coverage YTD, while STT (-12%), LAZ (-9%), and BK (-5%) remain our worst performers.
This week our WR Banks & Brokers Index was up 5% WoW, offsetting last week’s decline of -5%, and outperformed the S&P 500 and S&P Fins. by 100bps. EVR (+14%) and LAZ (+10%) were relative outperformers, while we expect this trend within our coverage to continue for EVR, we do not have the same view on LAZ, which has garnered interesting feedback that we address on slide 4. Our relative underperformers this week were RJF (+1) and STT (+2%); we were surprised by the recent underperformance at RJF and go into further detail on slide 6. YTD performance ranking among the top three remained unchanged with LPLA (+37%) closely followed by SF (+36%), and C (+26%). LAZ benefited from a strong week but still remains in our bottom three per YTD performance (-7%), nestled in between STT (-10%) and BK (-6%).
This week our WR Banks & Brokers Index was down -5% WoW, lagging the S&P 500 (-3%) and S&P Fins. (-3%). Relative outperformers within our coverage include Citi and JPM which both preformed in line with the broader market (-3%). We explore Citi in greater detail on slide 5 which provides some context on this relative outperformance. The remainder of our coverage underperformed the market by 100-300bps with LAZ, EVR, LPLA, BAC, STT, and BK all at the lower end of the range. YTD trends remained consistent with LPLA maintaining pole position (+31%), followed by SF (+29%) and C (+19%). LAZ (-16%), STT (-12%), and BK (-9%) continue to increase distance from the rest of our coverage and solidify spots as the bottom three relative underperformers.
This week our WR Banks & Brokers Index was down -1% WoW, tracking largely in line with the S&P 500 (-1%) but lagging the S&P Fins. (flat). Relative outperformers within our coverage include LPLA (+5%), which benefited nicely from a strong showing at investor day (see note), as well as RJF (+3%), which likely benefited from the new disclosure provided in April's monthly metrics release (we explore this in greater detail on slide 4). LAZ was the key laggard this week, down (-4%) WoW. Overall, we saw modest reshuffling around the YTD performance league table, with LPLA (+39%) now leading the group followed by SF (+36%) and C (+24%). LAZ (-10%), STT (-7%), and BK (-4%) continue to languish in the bottom three, and given our less constructive 2Q earnings outlooks for each firm, we expect this group to remain the biggest laggards among in coverage.
Ahead of Conference Season, We Updated Our Question Bank for Investors. Conference season is upon us, with a number of upcoming financials conferences over the next several weeks. To help investors prepare for company presentations / 1x1 meetings, we have updated our question bank, with the following pages outlining 10 key questions for each company on a number of key themes.
This week our WR Banks & Brokers Index was down -4% WoW, lagging both the S&P 500 by 300bps and the S&P Fins. by 200bps. AMTD was the relative winner this week, down -1%, with LPLA (-2%), GS (-2%) and JPM (-2%) rounding out the rest of the top relative outperformers, showcasing just how tough this week was in terms of share performance as trade tensions weighed on the space. The M&A boutiques were the weakest performers in our coverage once again as EVR and LAZ were down -9% and -6% WoW, respectively, with STT (-7%) and SCHW (-6%) the other relative laggards. YTD trends remain consistent with last week’s Chu (see report) as our top three performers remain SF (+38%), LPLA (+32%), and C (+25%), with GS (+18%) overtaking EVR (+15%) for the fourth spot. LAZ (-6%), STT (-4%), BK (-2%), and WFC (-1%) are all still in the bottom four.
Wolfe Research Senior Diversified Banks & Brokers Analyst, Steven Chubak, hosted a webcast to discuss 2019 stressed losses and payout capacity by bank, who is best/worst positioned for positive payout surprise, SCB lens: implications for capital requirements beyond 2019, and which banks look best in a post-SCB world.
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