We wanted to flag a few highlights in today's Wolfe Research Auto Daily...
- Early Model 3 ASP data looks encouraging. Expect Q1 deliveries of 75k units.
- What if Ford cuts International in half?
- If you live in China, you may be waiting 3 more days to buy your car
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1-10 out of 15 Posted on March 29, 2019
Filed under: Rod Lache, Dan Galves, and Chris Bottiglieri, Autos, Auto Parts, and Auto Technology, Auto 2.0, APTV, CVNA, NIO, TSLA, Auto Aftermarket, AAP, AZO, CPRT, GPC, KAR, LKQ, ORLY, VVV, Auto Dealers, ABG, AN, KMX, LAD, Autos and Auto Parts, ALV, AXL, BWA, CTB, DAN, DLPH, F, FCA-IT, GM, GT, HOG, LEA, MGA, TEN, VC, VNE
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Posted on February 8, 2019
Filed under: Rod Lache, Dan Galves, and Chris Bottiglieri, Autos, Auto Parts, and Auto Technology, Auto Aftermarket, VVV
VVV held its FQ1 earnings conference call this morning (02/07.19). Results missed expectations across the board. Gross profit of $183m missed cons. of $199m and our $196m. North America $GP/Gallon was down 15% y/y to $3.39, missing our $3.60 estimate. Adj. EPS of $0.27 missed consensus of $0.31 and our $0.29. VVV also lowered 2019 guidance, although we question whether it’s low enough. VVV shares -21%.
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Posted on February 7, 2019
Filed under: Rod Lache, Dan Galves, and Chris Bottiglieri, Autos, Auto Parts, and Auto Technology, Auto Aftermarket, VVV
VVV reported FQ1 results after market close on 2/6 with a call scheduled for the morning of 2/7. Results missed expectations across the board. Gross profit of $183m missed cons. of $199m and our $196m. North America $GP/Gallon was down 15% y/y to $3.39, missing our $3.60 estimate. Adj. EPS of $0.27 missed consensus of $0.31 and our $0.29. VVV also lowered 2019 guidance
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Posted on November 7, 2018
Filed under: Rod Lache, Dan Galves, and Chris Bottiglieri, Autos, Auto Parts, and Auto Technology, Auto Aftermarket, VVV
VVV reported FQ4 results AMC on 11/5 with call on 11/6. Gross profit of $203m missed Cons of $211m. The all-important NA $GP/Gallon was a large miss at $3.57 vs. $4.00 guidance. Adj. EPS of $0.34 missed Cons./our $0.35. VVV issued 2019 guidance with midpoint EBITDA missing Cons. by 3% and SG&A growth +8-10%. VVV -8% vs S&P +1%.
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Posted on August 2, 2018
Filed under: Rod Lache, Dan Galves, and Chris Bottiglieri, Autos, Auto Parts, and Auto Technology, Auto Aftermarket, VVV
VVV reported FQ3 results yesterday (8/1/2018) post close. GP of $201m missed Cons of $213m and our $215m. Both vol. and $GP/Gallon were large misses (Exhibit 2). Both we and the market had expected $GP/U pressure, but vol. pressure less appreciated. Adj. EPS of $0.32 missed Cons. of $0.35 and our $0.36. VVV lowered FY vol. guide to +1-2% (was +3-4%) and lowered EBITDA guide by 3.5%. VVV was -6.0% vs S&P +0.4%
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Posted on July 12, 2018
Filed under: Rod Lache, Dan Galves, and Chris Bottiglieri, Autos, Auto Parts, and Auto Technology, Auto Aftermarket, AAP, AZO, GPC, LKQ, ORLY, VVV
Add tariffs and commodity inflation to the growing list of headaches that investors/companies must contend with. We lay out our thoughts and some exhibits to help frame the impact of these macro issues on the auto part retailers and what we have observed to date.
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Posted on June 7, 2018
Filed under: Rod Lache, Dan Galves, and Chris Bottiglieri, Autos, Auto Parts, and Auto Technology, Auto Aftermarket, AAP, ABG, AN, AZO, CPRT, GPC, KAR, KMX, LAD, LKQ, ORLY, VVV, Auto Dealers, F, GM
We undertook the unenviable task of reading the proxy for every company under coverage (and one we don’t cover: TSLA).
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Posted on May 30, 2018
Filed under: Rod Lache, Dan Galves, and Chris Bottiglieri, Autos, Auto Parts, and Auto Technology, Auto Aftermarket, AAP, ABG, AN, AZO, CPRT, KMX, LAD, LKQ, ORLY, VVV, Auto Dealers, F, GM
Using Return on Invested Capital as a lens, we take a look at which companies and sub-industries capture the highest returns within the automotive value chain. We calculate ROIC across 27 companies within industries including dealers, OEMs, parts suppliers, aftermarket retailers, and service providers.
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Posted on May 10, 2018
Filed under: Rod Lache, Dan Galves, and Chris Bottiglieri, Autos, Auto Parts, and Auto Technology, Auto Aftermarket, AAP, AZO, GPC, LKQ, VVV
Yesterday (5/9/2018), Sears (not covered) announced a partnership with Amazon (c/b S. Mushkin) to sell and install any brand of tire at Sears’ 400+ Auto Center locations. In Feb. 2018, Amazon began carrying Die Hard starters, chargers, and Gold AGM batteries (expensive). Stock reaction was mixed with the group only modestly trailing (+0.5%) the S&P 500 (+1.0%).
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Posted on May 3, 2018
Filed under: Rod Lache, Dan Galves, and Chris Bottiglieri, Autos, Auto Parts, and Auto Technology, Auto Aftermarket, VVV
On May 2nd, after the market closed, VVV reported FQ2 18 results. Total EBITDA of $122M narrowly met cons/our $121M. Adj. EPS of $0.34 met cons/our $0.34, helped in part by a large buy-back. VVV held its volume and EPS guidance, but narrowed the high-end of its EBITDA range by 2%; however, the annual EBITDA mid-point is still above prior cons. and raw mat headwinds lowered than feared. Today, VVV +5% vs flat S&P 500.
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