VVV reported 1Q20 on 2/3 after the close. Revenue was in-line vs our expectations, EPS beat vs us and Consensus. Core NA profitability was a standout with GP/gallon 20% above our estimates helped by improved premium mix and better SGA leverage, despite a seasonally light quarter, while Quick Lube profitability underwhelmed. VVV was +2.5% vs S&P +1.5%.
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1-10 out of 27 Posted on February 5, 2020
Filed under: Chris Bottiglieri, Hardlines & Internet Retail, Consumer Industrials, VVV
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Posted on January 28, 2020
Filed under: Chris Bottiglieri, Hardlines & Internet Retail, Consumer Industrials, CPRT, IAA, KAR, VVV, Hardlines Retail, AAP, ABG, AN, AZO, BBY, GPC, HD, KMX, LAD, LKQ, LOW, ORLY, RH, SHW, TSCO, ULTA, WSM, AMZN, CVNA, W
With concerns over the Coronavirus spreading, we think US Retailers will likely be viewed as near-term relative safe-haven stocks given limited direct exposure to China. However, should the virus spread into a pandemic, especially in China, we see a greater impact to US retailers from indirect supply chain exposure or US GDP growth.
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Posted on November 8, 2019
Filed under: Chris Bottiglieri, Hardlines & Internet Retail, Consumer Industrials, VVV
VVV held its FQ4 call this AM. EBITDA was 10.3% above Consensus. Quick Lubes growth decelerated to 12% y/y (from 16% for 9M’19). Adj. EPS of $0.40 beat our $0.34 (Consensus $0.33). VVV issued 2020 guidance with mid-point EBITDA ~1% above prior Consensus, which was disappointing likely on continued Quick Lubes decel, volume/mix headwinds in Core NA and a subpar International outlook. VVV was up 4% vs S&P flat.
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Posted on October 8, 2019
Filed under: Chris Bottiglieri, Hardlines & Internet Retail, Consumer Industrials, CPRT, HOG, IAA, KAR, VVV, SFM, Hardlines Retail, AAP, ABG, AN, AZO, BBY, GPC, HD, KMX, LAD, LKQ, LOW, ORLY, RH, SHW, TSCO, ULTA, WSM, AMZN, CVNA, W
Today (10/07/19) we are assuming broader coverage of hardlines and internet retail with deep-dive reports on four companies, including a LOW downgrade to PP. We also have two ratings changes from our existing retail coverage (AAP to UP and ORLY to OP), and assuming coverage of six additional retail names with concise 1-page investment tear sheets.
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Posted on August 1, 2019
Filed under: Rod Lache and Dan Galves, Autos, Auto Parts, and Auto Technology, VVV
VVV held its FQ3 call this AM. EBITDA was 6% better than Cons (ex. 1-time items). VVV raised the FY guide by less than the Q3 beat. Core NA volumes were down 4% y/y vs 9% in 1H. Quick Lubes grew EBITDA 17% and VVV reiterated mid-teens EBITDA growth into 2020. Shares +8% vs S&P 500 -1%. For context, our 2020 EBITDA est. were up +7%.
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Posted on July 31, 2019
Filed under: Rod Lache and Dan Galves, Autos, Auto Parts, and Auto Technology, VVV, Autos and Auto Parts, DLPH, F, FCA-IT, GM
We wanted to flag a few highlights in today's (07/31/19) Wolfe Research Auto Daily....
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Posted on May 20, 2019
Filed under: Rod Lache and Dan Galves, Autos, Auto Parts, and Auto Technology, VVV, Autos and Auto Parts, AXL, BWA, F, FCA-IT, GM, LEA, VC, VNE
We wanted to flag a few highlights in today's (05/20/19) Wolfe Research Auto Daily....
Who’s Positioned to Hit High 2H19 and 2020 Hurdles?
In a series of notes over the past month we’ve suggested that U.S. OEMs are poised to outperform Suppliers for the first time since 2013. In today’s Daily, and a separate (more detailed) note we elaborate on 2 elements of the call: 1) Will 2H19 results confirm the risks, and; 2) We attempt to quantify the magnitude of the 2020 challenge facing Europe’s OEMs and major U.S. Suppliers… it’s more than $1,000 per vehicle.
China sales weakness continues as industry scrambles to meet new emission standards in key cities
Sales and wholesales in China through the first 10 days are down massively, as the industry rushes to upgrade vehicles to meet more rigorous (China 6) emissions standards, which are being phased-in early in several key Tier 1/Tier 2 cities.
VVV Analyst Day – Still No Line of Sight Towards Stabilization in North America
We didn't get the visibility we were hoping for on stabilization in North America, but we did leave with a greater appreciation of the drivers of success in Quick Lubes.
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Posted on May 17, 2019
Filed under: Rod Lache and Dan Galves, Autos, Auto Parts, and Auto Technology, VVV, Autos and Auto Parts, ALV, AXL, BWA, F, FCA-IT, GM, LEA, VC, VNE
We wanted to flag a few highlights in today's Wolfe Research Auto Daily....
Who’s Positioned to Hit High 2H19 and 2020 Hurdles?
In a series of notes over the past month we’ve suggested that U.S. OEMs are poised to outperform Suppliers for the first time since 2013. In today’s Daily, and a separate (more detailed) note we elaborate on 2 elements of the call: 1) Will 2H19 results confirm the risks, and; 2) We attempt to quantify the magnitude of the 2020 challenge facing Europe’s OEMs and major U.S. Suppliers… it’s more than $1,000 per vehicle.
China sales weakness continues as industry scrambles to meet new emission standards in key cities
Sales and wholesales in China through the first 10 days are down massively, as the industry rushes to upgrade vehicles to meet more rigorous (China 6) emissions standards, which are being phased-in early in several key Tier 1/Tier 2 cities.
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Posted on May 17, 2019
Filed under: Rod Lache and Dan Galves, Autos, Auto Parts, and Auto Technology, VVV
Today (5/16/19) VVV hosted its 1st analyst day. It slightly lowered its LT earnings algorithm: EBITDA +6-8% (was HSD) and EPS +HSD (was +HSD-LDD). While we have some concerns on NA/Int’l targets, we’ve updated our annual scenario model through 2022E to incorporate this guidance (Exhibit 3). By 2022E Quick Lubes is still just over 50% of EBITDA, which we don’t think is big enough for investors to fully appreciate yet. Shares were flat.
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Posted on May 16, 2019
Filed under: Rod Lache and Dan Galves, Autos, Auto Parts, and Auto Technology, Auto 2.0, TSLA, AAP, AZO, GPC, ORLY, VVV, Autos and Auto Parts, GM
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