While we collectively believe July 4, 1776 was the day of the signing of the Declaration of Independence and the birth of the United States of America it was July 2, 1776 when the Continental Congress declared independence. Too, it wasn’t until Nov 24, 1814 that Francis Scott Key wrote the poem that, when set to music, became “The Star-Spangled Banner” (it was originally called “The Defence of Fort McHenry”). And it wasn’t until 1916 when Woodrow Wilson announced that the song be played at all official events. But it was 80 years ago yesterday, on July 4, 1939, that 62,000 Yankee Stadium spectators heard, between games of a Yankees / Washington Senators double-header, Lou Gehrig give “the luckiest man” speech. Gehrig’s speech has since become known as “Baseball’s Gettysburg Address.”
Search Coverage List, Models & Reports
Search Results11-20 out of 269
Gold is consolidating. Please know that the chart here is representative of a Brobdingnagian BASE (BASES are our jam) with accelerating monthly momentum (lower panel). Aside from breaking out of a Brobdingnagian BASE which, by itself, is quite enough gold is also benefitting from a weakening-on-the-margin $, and low and going lower interest rates ($13T in negative yielding global debt). It’s important to remember that gold is the only monetary asset in the history of the world that has not, and will not, go to zero (i.e., no default risk). We continue to believe that gold will make a new all-time high in this cycle. For those wanting exposure via gold mining stocks please take a look at our Wolfe Gold Miners Index – Bloomberg symbol BNPWBANG. Like gold, it is also consolidating.
The 10-year yield for France is negative…Germany’s is negative…Denmark’s, the Netherlands’, Finland’s, Belgium’s, Switzerland’s, and Austria’s, too. What’s the chance the Spanish 10-year yield (Portugal’s 10-year yield, too) doesn’t work into negative territory? Monthly data (updated for the current yield) goes back to September 1788 while the chart insert shows daily data from Dec 2013 – to date.
The news was so good over the weekend it’s gonna take a nation of millions (thanks Public Enemy) to hold the market back: China and the US agreeing to restart trade negotiations, President Trump’s offer to meet (and then meeting) North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in the DMZ, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant agreeing to play for the Nets, and the Yankees taking two from the Red Sox in London in an offensive slugfest that saw both teams combine for 50 runs and, using data from our Technical Scoring System where we score anything with a price using a scale of 0 – 4, not one of the 93 global equity indexes we monitor have a score less than 2 (3’s & 4’s = good trends / strong, 2’s = neutral, 0’s – 1’s = weak). Think about that for a second – not one of the global equity indexes we monitor has a Technical Score less than 2! How much better can things get? When we figure it out, you’ll be the 2nd ones to know.
We wanted to once again highlight the Wolfe Technical Scoring System, a great tool to layer on top of your fundamental analysis. This system uses a scale of 0 – 4. 0’s & 1’s = poor/weak; 2’s = neutral; 3’s & 4’s = firm / strong. Ideally, we are buying 3’s & 4’s and selling 0’s & 1’s.
In our never-ending Vision Quest (you might remember the mid-80s movie of the same name that starred Matthew Modine and Linda Fiorentino; the movie also featured Madonna singing “Crazy For You”) to find Big BASES we uncovered the following monthly chart. Regular readers of our work will likely remember that we are “Crazy For Big BASES."
On the cusp of a new high, the action within the technology sector provides more questions than answers. Among them – net new highs on the NASDAQ are punk, semis are acting heavy, small caps are weaker and momentum in F.A.A.N.G. is waning. On the flip side, the bullish momentum in Software and IT Services (particularly FinTech) is relentless, providing some of the strongest uptrends in the broader market. We continue to embrace the strength of the latter, but given the cracks in the sector’s underlying foundation, it bears watching whether they are immune and can ignore these growing divergences.
By moving above $1400 gold has completed a Brobdingnagian BASE that extends back to the spring of 2013 and our technical work suggests that gold will work importantly higher. In fact, it’s our estimate that gold will make a new all-time high in this cycle. Central bank tomfoolery is likely the “aboost” (if you’ve been to an Italian wedding, you’ll know what this mean) that got gold out of its range but another plus for the metal is the weakening US$ picture. For example, in our Technical Scoring System we now find that 22 of 30 pairs have soft Technical Scores and only 8 have high Technical Scores. This inverse relationship between the US$ and gold is one we explored going back to the late 1960s.