Bond fans will know “From Russia With Love” was the 2nd installment in the greatest movie franchise of all-tiiiiiime (can’t you hear Ali saying that?). In it Bond battles the crime organization SPECTRE and a pair of Russian agents looking for a decoding device. It’s not The Avengers: Endgame, but for 1964 it was a good movie with a cold-war plot.
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Wolfe’s 12th Annual Global Transportation Conference kicks off tomorrow (05/21/19), and we thought that it would be helpful to provide a little technical color on a bunch of the presenting companies. From a macro perspective, overall trends for the Transportation index remain lackluster, with absolute and relative performance reversing violently recently at lower highs/resistance. Fortunately these worrisome trends are not ubiquitous and when we dig beneath the headline index, it becomes abundantly clear that there are the rails and then everybody else. Not only possessing the strongest trends within transports, but the rails also represent strong leadership versus the broader market as well. Unfortunately the same cannot be said of Air Freight & Logistics, Trucking and the Airlines, but as the charts in today’s note highlight, opportunities exist within each.
At a youth league baseball game on Saturday the Phillies were playing the Padres and the Phils were threatening in the latter innings. As the pitcher for the Padres toed the pitching rubber, with the bases loaded and the Phils’ dugout cheering wildly, the batter suddenly stepped out of the box. Looking every bit a mini-version of Scott Kingery, the shortstop for the major league’s Phillies, he turned to his dugout and, with his mouth full of Big-League Chew, screamed back at his teammates, “Stop cheering…it’s incredibly distracting.” Little Kingery proved prophetic because, like Casey, he struck out swinging. There was no joy in Mudville.
As an homage to Jerry Seinfeld and his “Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee” we’re going with “Investors Looking at Charts Drinking Coffee.” Please click on the attached PDF and take a look at 12 charts that caught our eye this week, each annotated with a few thoughts.
Please let us know if you have any questions or comments.
P1 S&P 500, Russell 2000 and Value Line
P2 Hang Seng and HSCEI
P3 IBOV and USDBRL
P4 USDCAD, USDZAR and GBPUSD
P5 Ford (F) and General Electric (GE)
No matter how many times we hear Duran Duran’s early 80’s classic, “Rio” we can’t help but think of Brazil and, of course, Rio de Janeiro. However, if our 80’s trivia hasn’t suffered too much we recall that “Rio” is actually a metaphor for America and some of the song’s lyrics seem to make it plain, “From mountains in the north down to the Rio Grande.” But because “Rio” always makes us think of Rio we then, naturally, think of the Ibovespa (IBOV) Index and USDBRL. Here’s what we’re seeing…
Chris Senyek had his latest “Earnings Quality” report out yesterday morning (5/15/2019) (Avoiding Stock Blow-Ups: Earnings Quality (EQ)), and I always find it an extremely useful tool in helping to identify compelling shorts or longs that should be questioned. As we all know, regardless of earnings quality, fighting strong price trends and bullish momentum can be a frustrating and money-losing proposition. It’s when trends begin to crack and momentum wanes that the real money can be made on the short side. Of the stocks discussed in yesterday’s note, the charts for BC, MMSI, LITE, GRUB, GPS, TIF, SRPT, BMRN, ALB, WDFC, MGPI, AAWW, LNN, KRO and VRTX line up nicely with his accounting concerns.
Near-term market indicators, like the 14-day RSI, recorded oversold readings on Monday so yesterday’s bounce was likely. Too, yesterday the 200-day moving average held as support for the DJIA (this was also true throughout the spring and summer of 2018) which is another reason to figure a bounce can occur. It’s our experience that strong markets will use any reason – real or ephemeral – to rally so if this market really is strong then the near-term oversold readings will be enough to get the market back on its toes and off its heels. However, the inability to bounce sharply and quickly will suggest to us that the damage done over the last two weeks is a prelude to further downside – this is what we’re expecting. (Chart here is for the DJIA w/ 200-day MA & 14-day RSI).
Here are 5 charts we’re watching closely. We think they’re important enough to share with you.
Charlie Chaplin, who rose to fame during the silent film era, was a worldwide phenomenon via his on screen “Tramp” character, and was one of the most important figures in film history (as Casey Stengel – more on him at another time – used to say, “You could look it up…”) once said, “Life is a tragedy when seen in a close up, but a comedy when seen in a long-shot.”
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