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I’ve always found that the most effective shorts occur when momentum begins to fail within a structurally broken or deteriorating trend. In my view, KRE (SPDR S&P Regional Banking) fits this setup nicely. After the recent overbought condition weighed on the advance beneath resistance, weakening momentum was reinforced by yesterday’s violent intraday reversal. I would like to see $53.40 support definitively taken out for confirmation, but through that level and I wouldn’t hesitate to press as downward pressures would likely accelerate.
With the market up slightly over the past 12-months, the dramatic outperformance of the bond surrogates is particularly telling as cyclicals continue to struggle. I’ll have more in my weekly video tomorrow but a few charts that caught my eye this morning.
Good afternoon. I'd thought that it would be helpful to provide some technical color on a few of the fundamental views that my colleagues have shared over the past few days.
As the market continues to wrestle with the 2800 resistance level, a handful of worrisome divergences are building beneath the surface...just as investor complacency sets in.
A few charts to ponder...
Best looking sector from a trend perspective? As the relentless oversold rally is now entering its tenth week, the answer might surprise you. Yes, they have lagged during the market’s oversold rally, but who would have guessed that utilities would be the only sector to never break trend and now trade a whisper away from a fresh all-time high? In my view, the reluctance of the bond market to embrace the broad rally of late is a concern but should continue to provide a healthy tailwind for bond surrogates - particularly utilities. Currently overbought at resistance, a modest consolidation is to be expected before they eventual break out to fresh highs.
In case you had missed the launch back in early January, I wanted to highlight a new and original product from Wolfe Research – ‘Follow the Money’ or ‘FTM’.
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