Please see today's version (8/16/19) of "The Contrarian Investor -- Charts are the Language of Wall Street." There are 21 pages in total and we believe you'll be able to flip through them before you finish your coffee.
Search Coverage List, Models & Reports
Search Results1-10 out of 337
It may be our ears were playing tricks on us, but we believe we heard yesterday (8/15/19) “you’re supposed to do your buying when there’s blood in the streets.” While this line pays homage to Baron Rothschild, an 18th century British nobleman and member of the famous Rothschild banking family, who reportedly said, “Buy when there is blood in the street, even if it is your own” you can understand our incredulity at the statement because, from where we sit, the only blood in the streets that we see is from the cellar-dwelling O’s following their 16th straight loss to the Bronx Bombers! It’s true the market’s action has gotten quite a choppy and difficult of late, but there’s no blood.
Though the S&P was down nearly 3% yesterday – and 3% down moves were commonplace (DJIA, Transports, NASDAQ, NDX, Russell 3000, RLG, SOX, BKX, and XRT) – the S&P is not yet even below its intra-day lows from Aug 5 and Aug 7 (2822 and 2826). While the S&P is down a bit more than 6% from its July 26 high and our daily momentum work is in negative territory, daily momentum is not as oversold as it was in early June. More importantly, in our opinion, is that the S&P is still overbought on a weekly basis! We believe it’s not pazzo to figure that a weekly oversold should develop before a good market low is in place. (charts)
Technical work continues to weaken for our Wolfe French Luxury Goods Stock Index. Weekly momentum readings (see chart, lower panel) are decelerating at a rapid clip and are not close to being oversold. Another amber flashing light is the negative momentum divergence that developed at the most recent high for the index in July as the corresponding weekly MACD did not confirm the price action. To make us even more cautious, monthly momentum is still in the neighborhood of its highest ever overbought reading.
Though uttered in the classic baseball movie “Eight Men Out,” the exchange is likely apocryphal as a young boy pleads with Joe Jackson (DB Sweeney), “Say it ain’t so, Joe,” about his involvement in the Black Sox Scandal where eight members of the Chicago White Sox were accused of intentionally losing the 1919 World Series to the Cincinnati Reds. (It has since been thought that Jackson was an unwitting player in the scandal. Incidentally, Jackson was such a great hitter that Babe Ruth said he patterned his swing after Jackson’s.)
It was ‘79 – ‘80 when one-hit wonder Funkytown, by Lipps Inc., topped the charts. And if you’re a market participant in this era you might admit that we’re in a Funkytown of our own. Here are 11 examples – in Larry Holmes’ lightning jab form – of what Funkytown looks like to us.
We've included 13 charts in today's note. It's not that we fear them, but we are pretty darned concerned with each of them.
Markets responded to near-term oversold signals, but the underlying foundation is growing increasingly fragile.
Given the global central bank race to zero and below, bond surrogates continue to benefit from investor’s thirst for yield. While the trends for Utilities and Real Estate continue to benefit from these global tailwinds, when we peel back the layers of the sector – plenty of long and short opportunities exist for each.
(Bank of Montreal, Bank of Nova Scotia, Can Imperial Bank of Commerce, Royal Bank of Canada and Toronto-Dominion Banks). In short, our work says that these stocks should be sold. And, as we were concerned about developing price weakness for Canadian Banks then we are still concerned about their poor price action / technical inputs / Technical ScoresCanadian BanksA few weeks ago, we sent out a technical note with the tag line, “Kawhi Leonard is to the Raptors as _________ are to the Canadian stock market.” Though Kawhi was still a Raptor when we wrote the note / made the analogy the answer we were looking for was / is
- 1 of 34
- next →