A bullish tell for credit? Good to see volatility ease over the past few days, as we remain on the lookout for positive divergences. Plus does today's reversal in crude suggest that it's value's time to finally shine?
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In our opinion, there’s no consensus on the market. What we’re seeing is more a donnybrook between those who believe the “low” is in – you’ve heard this being variously described as “the buying opportunity of a lifetime,” “a generational low”, “a seminal low”, etc. – and those who believe a retest / new low is coming. Also, it’s rarely the buying opportunity of a lifetime when there is a chorus of people telling us “it’s the buying opportunity of a lifetime.” Generational lows usually occur when investors, for the most part, swear off stocks.
Equity markets look poised to retest recent lows, as the macro dashboard (treasuries, credit, currencies and commodities) continue to flash yellow.
Review of today's market action, what sector continues to impress us and what chart will keep us awake tonight.
Overview of today's market action - what we liked, what troubled us and one chart we might end up regretting
There’s no doubt that the Consumer Discretionary Sector was down a ton in a short period of time, -37% from Feb 19 – Mar 18, and it has since rebounded nicely. However, our Technical Team continues to be focused on selling rallies here as we believe that the environment will continue to be difficult for the sector (component stocks) as longer-term momentum indicators are still not yet oversold and technical set-ups / patterns for many of the underlying stocks suggest topping formations.
You can see the first page here. What with baseball season postponed and the scheduled Opening Day of March 26th having come and gone we figured this would be as good a time as any to get nostalgic for the National Pastime and use some baseball history to create the analogy for the current market environment.
A violent rally off Monday's lows might have eased concerns for many, but the market faces its first significant test as divergences once again develop.
A quick recap of today's price action - what we liked, what still bothers us and one group that continues to impress
Over 29 weeks from July 24, 2015 – Feb 12, 2016 the S&P gave back -15%. There was a low into late August, a retest into early Oct, and the ultimate low formed in late Jan/early Feb ‘16. The S&P did not get to its upward-sloping 200-week moving average.
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