We wanted to flag a few highlights in today's (09/19/19) Wolfe Research Auto Daily....
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We wanted to flag a few highlights in today's (09/18/19) Wolfe Research Auto Daily....
We wanted to flag a few highlights in today's Wolfe Research Auto Daily....
IHS September Revisions: New IHS forecasts imply some downside to supplier numbers
IHS released updated production estimates, cutting global production estimates 100+ bps in 3Q and 4Q. We believe that this may suggest risk to Q3 assumptions of suppliers.
GT: Fine-tuning our 2019 estimates, as 2020 tailwinds become increasingly clear
Michelin’s compilation of global tire demand data (July and August) reflected weaker than expected demand for replacement tires. We believe that this poses some risk to Goodyear’s Q3. But starting in Q4 we believe that improving Price-Raw material spreads will become the dominant earnings driver… 2020 tailwinds are encouraging
ADAS penetration rates continue to climb
According to Canalys Research estimates, AEB penetration has reached 63% in the US (up 20pts YOY) and 56% in Europe (up 9pts YOY).
UAW called a strike against GM. Here’s what this means, and what we expect.
Sharply opposing positions are not a new phenomenon in Auto OEM/UAW negotiations. But this year’s negotiations appear to have been complicated by something new… an unprecedented level of distrust of UAW leadership from within UAW’s Rank and File. This dynamic led us to expect UAW to take a particularly hard line. This has now come to fruition.
If contained to just U.S. plants, we estimate that the strike could reduce GM’s earnings by $69 MM per day (a separate analysis of the temporary working capital impact suggests an initial inflow, followed by significant outflows after a few weeks). Our analysis of Suppliers points to impacts of $2, $3, and $5 MM per day for AXL, LEA, and MGA.
But there are reasons to be hopeful that this strike will be relatively short. For GM Investors, the key question will be whether Management maintains their financial commitments (i.e. cost and capex reduction).
We wanted to flag a few highlights in today's (09/12/19) Wolfe Research Auto Daily....
We wanted to flag a few highlights in today's (09/11/19) Wolfe Research Auto Daily....
What does a junk rating mean for Ford and Ford Credit?
Moody’s downgraded Ford’s unsecured rating to Ba1, one-notch below Investment Grade. For now Ford should be able to continue tapping this market with only minor tweaks (S&P and Fitch still have Ford 2 notches above junk). And with the backstop of the ABS market, there should be no impact on Ford Credit’s cost competitiveness or their ability to support Ford Auto even if things get worse. That said, Moody’s commentary highlights concerns.
NYC Rideshare Update – Uber/Lyft Bookings still growing through price increases, but are both running out of runway?
We’ve analyzed ridership trends in New York City following the implementation of driver minimum wage rules in early February 2019.
China and Europe SAAR Update – Not as good as it looked
SAARs for Europe and China came in better than expected for August. (16.9 MM SAAR for Europe, 21.3 MM for China). However, digging into the numbers, selling rates appeared inflated in both regions (Self-registrations in Europe; aggressive discounting/incentive activity in China). Europe and China optics could improve through year-end: Expect more self-registrations in Europe ahead of onerous CO2 Regs; China likely remains soft, but comps get easier in Sept.
Experian 2Q19 Auto Finance Update
Experian released their 2Q19 Automotive Finance Report last week. We came away with two key takeaways from the report: 1) Rising rates pushed payments higher through Q2; 2) New vehicle buyers have been shifting towards less expensive late-model used cars. We’d note that benchmarks (3-year swap rates) have come down a lot. If loan rates (and payments) come down on lower rates, this could mitigate U.S. downside.
We wanted to flag a few highlights in today's (09/06/19) Wolfe Research Auto Daily....
We wanted to flag a few highlights in today's (09/05/19) Wolfe Research Auto Daily....
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