Q4 revenue was in-line with us/Cons. EBITDA and EPS beat Consensus on higher than expected North American EBITDA margins. Guidance was mixed, with organic growth and EPS below, but FCF guidance was strong. Shares were flat vs. -0.4% for the S&P 500.
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This morning (02/19/20) GPC reported Q4 results. Revenue of $4.65bn was 1% below Consensus, while adj. EPS of $1.35 beat Cons. of $1.30 and our $1.29. Automotive margins declined 57bps y/y, largely due to deleverage in Europe (40bps) despite stabilizing topline. GPC also issued 2020 EPS guidance which was 1% below Cons. at the midpoint. Shares were up 3%.
AAP reported Q4 results with SSS of 0.1% that missed Cons of 1% but Non-GAAP op margin of 7.1% that beat Cons of 6.3%. 2020 guide of 1% SSS (mdpt.) was below Cons of 1.7%. At 8.55%, op. margins (mdpt.) met Cons of 8.5%, but only factors in 20bps of expansion (extra week is the rest).
This AM (2/12/20), LAD reported Q4 results. Total revenue growth of 9.9% was above Cons. of 8.2% and our 8.7%. EPS of $2.95 narrowly missed Cons. of $2.97 but beat our $2.94. Shares were down -5.5%.
AN grew EBITDA by +24% (adjusted for asset sales, investment gains, and floorplan interest), which beat the +17% we were expecting on better GP growth and tighter SG&A. AN shares were +7% vs. flat S&P 500.
Wednesday (02/05/20), post-market close, ORLY reported Q4 results. SSS of 4.4% were in-line with cons of 4.3% and below Wolfe 5%. EBIT margins were 80bps worse than Cons. EPS of $4.25 missed Cons by 0.5% & Wolfe by 2.5%. 2020 guide was soft on margins with comps better than feared (though there is carryover mild-winter comp risk). Shares were -5%.
ABG reported Q4 results. Sales growth of 6.2% beat cons’ 5.4% and our 4.1%. SG&A/GP was 80bps better than cons. EPS of $2.53 beat cons of $2.34 and our $2.32. Shares were up 3% vs. +1% S&P 500.
Adj. EPS of $4.27 missed our $4.42 (Consensus $4.39). Adj. EBIT of $560mm was below our $606mm (Consensus $575mm). Paint SSS while healthy at 4.6% were below expectations.
This AM (1/30), TSCO reported 4Q SSS of 0.1% missing Cons of 2.4%. Expectations were low due to 3rd party CC data. Margins were in-line despite the topline miss. EPS of $1.21 missed Cons $1.23 and our $1.25. 2020 guide of 1.5% to 3% SSS missed consensus of 3.1%, while EPS missed by 4% at the midpoint. Shares were -1.5% vs -0.5% for the S&P 500.
With concerns over the Coronavirus spreading, we think US Retailers will likely be viewed as near-term relative safe-haven stocks given limited direct exposure to China. However, should the virus spread into a pandemic, especially in China, we see a greater impact to US retailers from indirect supply chain exposure or US GDP growth.
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