Heightened supply risk for 2019. During 3Q18, retailers took a turn for the worse, as inventory increased modestly at a faster rate than sales. With no ability to raise prices to drive comp, retailers must rely on increased unit volume to drive sales growth. Note that this is a snapshot entering 4Q18. Most results, save for a few exceptions (e.g., TGT – PP, COST – PP, covered by Scott Mushkin, and LULU-OP), have missed holiday sales. We expect inventory exiting 4Q18 to show even higher inventory-related business risk.
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The December reading rose for the second consecutive month, suggesting with valuations pulling in short sellers may be derisking. The November reading was 2 out of 10. In December 39.1% of retailers posted a short position >15% (was 42.2% in November). Since we last published this report on 12/17/18, the XRT is up 6% vs. the S&P 500 +2%. We rank Sector Sentiment on a scale of “1” being the most negative sentiment to “10” being the most positive sentiment. The basis for the ranking is based on the number of retailers in the sector with >15% short positions.
Today (1/14/2019), BMO, LULU raised their guidance for 4Q18 post stellar holiday results. The company now expects sales in the range of $1.140 billion to $1.150 billion based on a total comparable sales increase in the mid-to-high teens on a constant dollar basis. This compares to prior guidance of net revenue of $1.115 billion to $1.125 billion based on a total comparable sales increase in the high-single to low-double digits on a constant dollar basis. As a result of the higher than expected sales, the company expects EPS in the range of $1.72 to $1.74 for the fourth quarter (Cons of $1.69) vs. previous guidance of $1.64 to $1.67. Another quarter of full-price driven sales, as they engage current and new customers with product innovation and category and geographic expansion. We expect to hear color on the next three-year long range plan with a spring investor event/update. Reiterate OP. As a result of the update, shares are +6%.
We believe 2018 may have been “peak season” for retailers. We continue to believe in the Retail Death Curve phenomenon. The 2018 lift in mall traffic was against easy compares and pent-up demand. Despite clean inventory in 2018, there was no evidence of broad-based pricing power. Retailers were as, if not more, promotional than prior year and “bought the comp.” Tax reform savings were reinvested in store-related wages and deferred capital spending – both contributing to a higher fixed cost infrastructure than before tax reform – adding to greater deleverage risk.
It’s preannnouncement season. Post-holiday preannouncement season is here. With up to 85% of sales completed, retailers know their 4Q fate. As such, we are publishing a post-holiday promo tracker update with our call outs on upside and downside performance for the quarter. Often, the holiday success or disappointment translates into a similar outlook for the forthcoming year. With valuations pulling back in 4Q, we believe our positive call outs are worth a look ahead of 4Q18 preannouncment season and as long-term outperformers in the sector. We expect preannouncements from at least the following companies: ANF, AEO, PLCE, EXPR, CPRI, LB, LULU, ULTA, URBN, W.
Sector Sentiment 2, on a Scale of 1 (worst) to 10 (best): The November reading rose from the October reading of 1 out of 10 with 42.2% of retailers posting a short position >15% (was 44.4% in October). Since we last published this report on 11/14/18, the XRT is down 11% and therefore investors may have taken some money off the table. We rank Sector Sentiment on a scale of “1” being the most negative sentiment to “10” being the most positive sentiment. The basis for the ranking is based on the number of retailers in the sector with >15% short positions.
During 3Q18, LULU proved once again that the power of a true brand is determined by the ability to drive full price sales. In 3Q18, both store and e-commerce channels continued to grow meaningfully, with the e-commerce contribution margin ~1500 basis points higher than the stores. Global growth in both Asia and Europe remain long-term opportunities, and we look forward to updated long-range plan targets on the company’s year-end call. LULU possesses several powerful long-term trends: 1) a successful omni model defined by accretive, non-cannibalizing e-commerce growth, 2) expansion into Men’s driving $1B opportunity, 3) brand resonance with the fast-growing Millennial generation, and 4) China/Asia-specific growth. Reiterate OP.
After a solid 2Q18 that beat on sales and margins with exceptionally clean inventory, we expect another similar quarter of all-around strength. For 3Q18, we are raising our comp to +15% (Cons +14%) and EPS to $0.70 (Cons $0.69) with additional room for upside driven by potential GM beat. Earnings on 12/6/2018; (800) 319-4610.
3Q18 Consumer Sentiment Poll scores 5. 1 out of 10 (vs 6.2 in 2Q18). Each quarter, we send out a brief survey to gauge investor sentiment prior to earnings, where 1 is “Terrible” and 10 is “Excellent.” Thanks for replying, if you did! Survey results are completely anonymous, and the greater the response rate, the more conclusive the results, so please consider participating next time.
The October reading exceeded the September reading of 2 out of 10 with 44.4% of retailers posting a short position >15% (was 43.5% in September). This is the third straight month of percentage increases. The last time the sector sentiment was a 1 was in July 2018 when 45.7% of retailers posted a short position of >15%. We rank Sector Sentiment on a scale of “1” being the most negative sentiment to “10” being the most positive sentiment. The basis for the ranking is based on the number of retailers in the sector with >15% short positions.
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