The STB released August headcount data for the rails (U.S. operations only) today (9/16/19). Total headcount excluding BNSF declined 8% y/y in August vs. -6% the prior 2 months. This represents the largest y/y decline in nearly 3 years. Total headcount also fell 1.2% m/m, the 10th straight sequential monthly reduction.
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Wolfe Research's Senior E&P Analyst, Josh Silverstein, hosted a webcast to discuss what crude oil prices the E&Ps are implying, how to think about E&P valuation on EV/EBITDA, how Boards of Directors are impacting decision making, and takeaways from recent management meetings.
This morning (9/16/19) H announced in an 8-K that it has sold the Hyatt Regency Atlanta for $355M to an undisclosed buyer who has subsequently entered into a management agreement with H. With the $355M in gross proceeds H increased their 2019 capital return guidance by $200M.
NOVN held an investor call to review the ASCLEPIOS data on ofatumumab that was presented on Friday at ECTRIMS (multiple sclerosis). The company continued to build the case for investors why a self-administered, monthly, home-based delivery of a highly-efficacious b-cell depleting therapy will resonate well with the market place. Most questions from analysts centered on comparing ofa to ROGs highly-successful Ocrevus, which requires in-office infusion every 6-mo. Its arguments are sound, and while not “high science” per se – i.e. coming to market as a second entrant into the anti-CD20 class with a clinical data package that more or less looks the same – there is a reasonable value proposition with self-administration meaning ofatumumab is likely to find a home. Further, Novartis knows the MS market well by virtue of selling Gilenya and newer oral therapy Mayzent.
ROG is holding an R&D day today that we are attending. It consists of two parts – the first are various sessions with all attendees, the second is select break-out sessions. This write-up summarizes the first part. On balance, have been no major new disclosures that are meaningful, either positive or negative. ROG talked about strides it is making in R&D productivity, gave assurances that it can manage the upcoming biosimilar erosion through the launch of innovative therapies, showcased recent drug approval successes both in- and outside of oncology (Ocrevus, Hemlibra, Polivy, Rozlytrek, Tecentriq line extension, and others), and generally had one slide per product for a host of pipeline candidates across various disease areas.
Last week the California Senate passed Assembly Bill 5, which implements a mechanism for gig workers to be reclassified from contractors to employees. Wolfe Auto Tech analyst Dan Galves dug into the latest rideshare drama and what it means for powerhouses Uber and Lyft. He doesn’t see a near-term impact but believes there are two likely long-term outcomes.
Scheduled system seat capacity for the Sep-Dec four-month period shows seats +4.0% y/y, down 16bp w/w largely on LUV MAX cuts. Domestic growth was down 19bp w/w to +4.2% y/y mostly driven by cuts from LUV (MAX) slightly offset by adds from Frontier and SAVE. Pacific capacity was down 12bp w/w to +1.2% y/y, transatlantic was flat w/w at +5.5% y/y, and Latin was up 9bp w/w to +1.3% y/y. Int’l capacity growth was flat w/w at +2.3% y/y. Domestic competitive capacity was down 14bp w/w to +4.2% y/y.
Our Saturday chart packet – “Ten Charts to Paradise” – was an homage to Eddie Money and today’s note – appropriately titled, “You Might Think” – is as an elegy, of sorts, for The Cars’ front man, Ric Ocasek, who died yesterday (9/15/19).
In this week’s Sunday Spotlight, we introduce the Wolfe Research Cross-Border Payments Index, which will provide investors with an intra-quarter proxy of cross-border volume trends. As we have highlighted in prior research, several names in our coverage (V, MA, PYPL and to a lesser extent FIS/WP) derive a meaningful portion of earnings through cross-border payments, given significantly better economics and exposure to faster growing markets. At PYPL, CBV comprises ~20% of TPV. For the networks, our checks suggest CBV comprises less than 10% of total volume but over 40% of total revenue. Our cross-border index aggregates data across consumer spend, international travel, and cross-border financial messaging. While the index only considers data compiled over the last 3.5 years, we found a significant correlation (coefficient of .76) to the average CBV growth of V/MA/PYPL, despite cryptocurrency noise.
It was another volatile week for the E&Ps this week as sector performance got off to a good start, faded towards the middle, and then rallied back on Friday to finish +6.9% for the week vs. the S&P500 +1.0% and WTI -2.8%. Performance between the sub groups continues to be split, with the rally in gas names continuing for a second week.
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