CEO Changes. The most recent companies with a CEO change (* denotes external) include: Amkor Technology (AMKR), Coty* (COTY), Colony Capital (CLNY), CenterPoint Energy (CNP), CyrusOne (CONE), Navistar International (NAV), Worthington Industries (WOR), Two Harbors (TWO), John Bean Technologies (JBT), Kaiser Aluminum (KALU), Amkor Technology (AMKR), Waters (WAT), Seacoast Banking (SBCF), Adverum (ADVM), Avangrid* (AGR).
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Last year ~29% of U.S. airline passengers were business travelers, per an Ipsos poll commissioned by A4A. We believe that mix was higher for network airlines (~40%). Most (76%) U.S. airline business trips were domestic trips last year. Using other data outside that study, we estimate domestic business trips had a 50% fare premium and int’l business trips an 80% fare premium. DAL outpunched in this segment, and therefore it has a unique challenge now.
Since mid June, our lead indicators have flagged that interest in Dental care seemed to have peaked. While the rebound drove re-stocking and recovery evident in our June checks with private distributors and consumables/ortho players, this was likely a near-term top and we cut our assumption for peak capacity utilization in our revised 2020-2021 dental framework There are positive offsets given PPE datapoints and our better understanding of vaccines as a tailwind, making the net impacts more modest than we expected. We are now, again, at the mercy of the virus as outbreaks drive concern and pressure visit volumes.
WIW #652: A hotter June underlines upside potential to 2Q/3Q residential demand, relative to expectations. Commercial likely remains a weak spot and the potential for distress in many CRE sectors is more powerful than likely modest offsets from indoor air quality system upgrades. LII appears best positioned into 2Q relative to EPS expectations; we continue to see the potential for relative multiple expansion at CARR and JCI.
While May saw nice improvement over April (the bottom), the rate of seq. growth decelerated in June vs. May. Expectations for demand to meaningfully pick up in 2H’20 has been reset lower, with more advertisers sitting on the sidelines due to the lack of visibility in the economic outlook and a recent spike in COVID cases. We continue to expect a saucer shaped recovery in advertising.
Rail stocks continue to lag with our Rail index now down 6% YTD (U.S. rails down 9%) vs. the S&P 500 down 2% and our WR Transport Index up 1%. We think this reflects a combination of 1) weak fundamentals and near-term earnings risk, 2) normal cycle behavior where truckers outperform materially at the bottom of the cycle, and 3) growing concern about a Democratic clean sweep and potential for higher corporate tax rates, further pressure on coal, and a tougher path to one-man crews. Our note today focuses on the fundamental issues for rails right now and why we think 2Q should be the bottom.
NFE shares are up 36% since issuing its update on Monday, and we believe the momentum could continue as the business is aligned on the right side of commodity fundamentals and global societal trends. Over the past three months we’ve watched the parabolic performance of various growth/hype stocks and thought NFE had the attributes to join the party, with the start up of the Puerto Rico terminal and ongoing oversupply of LNG as catalysts. Raising target to $28 as we see more than just a short-LNG position, although that is not a bad thing either.
As demonstrated by the Track 1 opioid multidistrict litigation (MDL) case in Ohio, trial start dates are an important catalyst for settlement negotiations. This also appears to have been true for the New York trial, with the latest update (recapped below) coming immediately prior to the originally scheduled start of the trial. New York and West Virginia are the key upcoming trials in the ongoing opioid litigation, and both have been delayed by COVID-19. The New York trial now looks likely to start in September at the earliest, and the West Virginia trial is now scheduled to begin in mid-October.
This is Product Pulse, our Refining monthly note. Our Refining weekly, Capture Trackers, deals with Refining esoterica and trending topics, whereas Product Pulse is a broader view summarizing regional margins, refined product supply snapshots, and, most importantly, a monthly sector EPS mark to market.