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A bullish tell for credit? Good to see volatility ease over the past few days, as we remain on the lookout for positive divergences. Plus does today's reversal in crude suggest that it's value's time to finally shine?
Wolfe Research Senior Oil & Gas Analyst Sam Margolin hosted a webcast to discuss: Run cuts and inventories, Stress Testing, Crude Dislocations, Offense or Defense
Wolfe Research Senior Multi-Industry Analyst, Nigel Coe, hosted a webcast to discuss the team's macro framework, major emerging debates, the team's favorite longs and shorts, and where investors are positioned.
Despite stepping up the defensive efforts and the 46% YTD underperformance vs. the S&P500, we continue to see a challenging outlook for the E&Ps. Barring a V-shape recovery for oil prices, which we view as unlikely, we see the profile combination of declining volumes, rising financial risk, and reduced return limiting sector visibility and upside. However, we are reshuffling our stock picks as themes and relative value opportunities have emerged amongst the recent volatility.
The stock is down 44% year to date and it now has a dividend yield of 12%, which we believe is secure. The collapse in oil puts WMB’s G&P operations in a better position and highlights the much more stable cash flows from regulated gas transmission such as WMB’s Transco. In short, we believe the predictability of WMB’s cash flows is a shelter in an environment where many other companies in the space have significantly more uncertainty.
With the rapidly changing business outlook due to Covid-19, several local and national ad categories are cancelling or reducing ad budgets – pulling back much more than in the financial crisis. As a result, we expect consensus estimates to move significantly lower, likely in a series of downward revisions in the coming months. We believe it’s too soon to get constructive on the media sector and we are downgrading ETM and IHRT to PP from OP, and prefer OP rated NXST for investors looking for exposure to the sector.
The Wolfe Healthcare team hosts a webcast with Dr. Gyorgy Abel & Bob McGonnagle to discuss the outlook for COVID-19 testing in different treatment settings and how the virus will impact the clinical lab landscape
Recently, some companies have reduced or suspended their dividends in the wake of the COVID-19 crisis. So far, we estimate this sums to ~$18-$20 billion of annualized dividend payments with Boeing and Ford accounting for 20% and 10% of aggregate amounts (aggregate R3000 LTM dividend payments were $540b, of which ~$100b was in the Financials sector).
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