We generally expect in-line or upside A&L reports into peaking vols, lower fuel prices and improving pricing trends. We see the most upside relative to Cons. for AAWW and FWRD and expect CHRW to struggle again to make Cons.
65 private and public transport carriers across all modes presented at our transport conference last Tues. and Wed. All have seen accelerating demand trends through May and not 1 carrier or shipper could name a single customer slowing orders as a result of recent global concerns”this includes European based providers DHL, TNT, KNIN, PWTN and CEVA.
Since the market’s recent peak on April 26, our average transport stock is down 10% relative to the S&P 500 and Russell 1000 down 8% and 9%. The transports are generally viewed as more cyclical than the market and have continued to underperform on market pullbacks and outperform when the market was rising over the past 18 months.
TNT reported 1Q ongoing EPS 6% above Cons., but arguably 14% above Cons. after normalizing the tax rate. Rev., EBIT and EPS grew 12%, 51% and 79% y/y, each materially improved from +0.5%, +2% and +2% last qtr. Relative to our expectations, Rev. was 11pp better while OR was 80bp better.
This weekly report summarizes the most recent views and research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) three to five snippets or key takeaways from our team’s recent channel checks with traffic managers about their experiences with purchasing, competition, and service from Airfreight and Logistics, Rail, and Truck capacity providers; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight and logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
This weekly report summarizes the most recent views and research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) three to five snippets or key takeaways from our team’s recent channel checks with traffic managers about their experiences with purchasing, competition, and service from Airfreight and Logistics, Rail, and Truck capacity providers; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight and logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
TNT’s stock was up 6% yesterday after the company announced a possible sale or possible IPO of its Mail businesses. The company hosted its Annual Shareholders Meeting yesterday but provided few additional details on the timing for such an event. In Exhibit 1 below, we provide an updated break-up analysis of TNT’s Express and Mail segments and arrive at a sum of the parts valuation of roughly ‚¬29/shr.
This weekly report summarizes the most recent views and research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) three to five snippets or key takeaways from our team’s recent channel checks with traffic managers about their experiences with purchasing, competition, and service from Airfreight and Logistics, Rail, and Truck capacity providers; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight and logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
In C09, TNT shares gained 60%, materially outperforming UPS, FDX, the S&P 500 and the Dutch AEX. With many of the catalysts we favored during C09 behind it, we see less upside to earnings for TNT and expect it to trade in line with the market going forward.
TNT reported 4Q EPS of ‚¬0.55 vs. our and Cons. ‚¬0.51 estimates and ‚¬0.55 a year ago. Excluding a ‚¬0.03 benefit from a lower tax rate, the quarter was generally in line. By segment, Mail was slightly better than we expected while Express was slightly worse. Trends generally inflected positive y/y as Rev., EBIT and EPS grew 0.5%, 2.2% and 1.5% vs. -7.6%, -12.0% and -9.1% y/y in 3Q.