We emailed out a 70-page report reiterating our bullish TL thesis. We recommend buying TL stocks into early signs of tighter capacity and our expectations for capacity to tighten further the next few months and lead to stronger TL pricing into 2014. We also published a 60-page report on the rails and our expectation for stronger coal vols ahead. Bound hard copies of both reports will be available at our Global Transport Conference on Wednesday, May 22 and Thursday, May 23. If you can’t attend our conference, email us for hard copies of either report.
We have been arguing that supply-driven pressures will keep truckload (TL) capacity tight, leading to both strong pricing gains and market share growth for larger, better capitalized carriers over the next five to ten years. While relatively little supply has entered the market, pricing gains have been constrained by a continued weak demand environment. We still believe the capacity situation remains tenuous and believe TL pricing is poised to re-accelerate materially upon even a slight but sustainable improvement in demand, or a tightening in truck utilization resulting from upcoming changes in Hours of Service (HOS) rules.
Our 6th Annual Global Transport Conference will take place on Wednesday, May 22 and Thursday, May 23. This report is a guide for investors attending the conference, including a list of suggested questions to ask each company and a snapshot of our earnings models.
This weekly report presents the most recent views we are hearing from industry insiders and summarizes the research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) key takeaways, selected shipper comments; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight & logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
This weekly report presents the most recent views we are hearing from industry insiders and summarizes the research of Wolfe Trahan. Included are (1) key takeaways, selected shipper comments; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight & logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
This weekly report presents the most recent views we are hearing from industry insiders and summarizes the research of Wolfe Trahan. Included are (1) key takeaways, selected shipper comments; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight & logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
SAIA reported 1Q EPS (ex. retroactive tax gain) of $0.49, 32% above Cons., 14% above our high-end expectation, 45% improved y/y and up from $0.04 just 2 years ago in 1Q. Rev. was in line with our expectations, and SAIA beat our high-end OR forecast by 60bp.
This weekly report presents the most recent views we are hearing from industry insiders and summarizes the research of Wolfe Trahan. Included are (1) key takeaways, selected shipper comments; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight & logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
Despite a difficult comp and muted near-term tonnage, we expect SAIA will continue to benefit in 1Q and throughout C13 from strong pricing discipline and cost control. We are raising our 1Q EPS to $0.43 and we’re now 13% above Cons. We’re also raising our full-year C13 EPS by 10% to $2.65 which is 12% above Cons