Near-term Class 8 Demand Seems Modestly Better, as Expected. We found most truck OEMs incrementally positive about March orders, consistent with normal seasonality, and we still think 25K is a fair expectation for March Class 8 orders, up from 23K in Feb. PCAR is seeing improved vocational demand (resi and non-resi), Freightliner is seeing more quoting and a few large fleet orders recently for growth, not just replacement, and Volvo said its order book is firming. NAV expects weak share to continue, indicating no improvement.
In this note: Feb EU auto sales weak but SAAR steady; Feb NA Cl8 builds miss plan; GM trims U.S. car production.
In this note: China wholesales post strongest Jan-Feb y/y auto sales gain since 2010, India sales & production remain weak, Treasury accelerates GM stock sales, CMI announces almost 10 mpg on Class 8 Super Truck test.
Brazil truck production growth pauses in Feb, while auto sales plummet; German truck registrations show signs of bottoming in Feb while auto sales & production slip; NAV offering $1,500 rebates to small fleets and more.
NA Class 8 Truck Orders Rise in Feb. ACT Research reported Feb prelim Class 8 net orders of 23.3K this afternoon, up from 22.2K in Jan and above our expectation of about 22K-23K. The Feb order rate implies annual demand of roughly 275K trucks on a seasonally adjusted basis, above the 260K SAAR in Jan and above the 3- and 6-month trailing annual order rates of 255K and 245K.
In this note: CMI gains NA Cl8 engine share in Jan; China light vehicle sales & production reach new records in Jan; EU truck registrations weaken, but Jan German freight volumes strong; February U.S. auto sales, and more.
U.S. Auto sales are set to be released March 1, and SAAR expectations from various sources (Ward’s, Edmunds, KBB, JD Power, Truecar.com) range from 15.2M-15.5M. This compares to 15.3M in January and December and our unchanged 2013 forecast of 15.3M. While winter storm Nemo slowed sales down in the northeast, we believe it also improved light truck and SUV mix in February.
Public truckers’ 2013 aggregate capex set to drop y/y; India truck sales deteriorate further in Jan; Ram 1500 to begin offering diesel engines in 3Q; NA auto production steady this week but below January levels.
In this note: China sets global record for monthly auto sales ahead of lunar new year; Brazil truck orders rebound in 4Q and January starts strong; Europe truck orders rise from 3Q; Daimler, MAN & Volvo truck order data; NA auto production cools this week; Consumer reports questions turbocharging benefits.
NA Class 8 Truck Orders Rise in Jan. ACT Research reported Jan prelim Class 8 net orders of 22.6K this morning, up from 21.1K in Dec and above our expectation of about 20K. The Jan order rate implies annual demand of roughly 265K trucks on a seasonally adjusted basis, above the 235K SAAR in Dec and above the 3- and 6-month trailing annual order rates of 240K and 220K.