Total Week 50 rail vols were up 1.6% y/y, relatively improved from flattish the past 2 weeks and the best y/y growth for the rails in 13 weeks. Vols are still tracking down 0.7% QTD in 4Q vs. +1.7% in 3Q. Last week, we reduced our 4Q vol. expectations for the rails, and vols are now slightly above our reduced expectations with 2 weeks of data left in the qtr.
Total Week 50 rail vols were up 1.6% y/y, relatively improved from flattish the past 2 weeks and the best y/y growth for the rails in 13 weeks. Vols are still tracking down 0.7% QTD in 4Q vs. +1.7% in 3Q. Last week, we reduced our 4Q vol. expectations for the rails, and vols are now slightly above our reduced expectations with 2 weeks of data left in the qtr.
Total Week 49 rail vols were up 0.2% y/y, relatively improved from -0.8% and flattish the past 2 weeks. Vols are now tracking down 0.9% QTD in 4Q, down from +1.7% in 3Q and below our prior expectations for flattish vols in the qtr.
Total Week 48 rail vols were down 0.8% y/y, slightly worse than flattish vols the past 2 weeks as vols for the western rails were negatively impacted by the port strike at LA/LB. Vols are now tracking down 1.0% QTD in 4Q, down from +1.7% in 3Q and below our expectations for flattish vols in the qtr. So far in 4Q, vols are trending below our expectations for KSU, CSX, CP, and UNP, and slightly above our expectations for NSC and CNI.
Total Week 47 rail vols were flat y/y, similar with the past 2 weeks as vols for the U.S. rails remained negative (-1%) and the Canadians remained positive (+5%). Vols fell 12% sequentially due to Thanksgiving which also occurred in the year-ago period. Vols are now tracking down 1.1% QTD in 4Q, down from +1.7% in 3Q and below our expectations for flattish vols in the qtr. So far in 4Q, vols are trending below our expectations KSU, CSX, and CP, mostly in line with our expectations for UNP and NSC, and slightly above our expectations for CNI.
Total Week 45 rail vols declined 0.9% y/y, improved from -4.8% last week as vols rebounded 4% sequentially following Hurricane Sandy last week. Still, vols were negative y/y for the 5th straight week into depressed coal vols and likely some lingering effects from the hurricane.
Total Week 44 rail vols declined 4.8% y/y, down from -1.3% and -0.7% the past 2 weeks. Vols were negative y/y for the 4th straight week and dropped 6% sequentially due to Hurricane Sandy. While eastern rail vols were most impacted by the hurricane as expected, interchange traffic for all the other rails was impacted to a lesser extent as well, so we don’t read much into the deceleration in vols this week beyond the impact of the storm.
Total Week 42 rail vols declined 0.7% y/y vs. -1.0% and +0.2% the past 2 weeks. Vols were negative y/y for the 2nd straight week and are now trending up just 0.2% y/y the past 6 weeks, decelerated from +1.7% during 3Q. On the positive side, vols ticked up slightly sequentially (+0.6%) after falling the past 2 weeks.
Total Week 39 rail vols fell 0.1% y/y vs. -0.2% and +1.8% the past 2 weeks. While y/y vols were again muted, absolute vols reached their highest level in a year as peak season has begun to develop. Vols finished up 1.5% y/y for the full 3Q, modestly accelerated from +1.2% in 2Q. U.S. rail vols grew 1.2% in 3Q, trailing the Canadian rails with vols up 2.8%.
Total Week 36 rail vols increased just 0.2% y/y, decelerated from +1.1% and +1.8% the past 2 weeks. This marks the slowest y/y growth in rail vols the past 14 weeks, largely into weaker coal vols and slower growth in autos, although we don’t read much into vols during holiday weeks. Rail vols fell 8.5% sequentially due to Labor Day last week but vols are still tracking up 1.9% QTD in 3Q, accelerated from +1.2% in 2Q and vs. our +2% estimate for the qtr.