Below is our list of doh! models, listed in reverse chronological order. These models provide templates that can be manipulated to change your own assumptions around specific topics to see how it impacts a company's earnings outlook. This research is stricly limited to clients of Wolfe Research. If you are a Wolfe Research client and can not access any of the links in our library, please contact ITSupport@WolfeResearch.com to request our PDF decryption plug-in.
We released an interactive fee model in conjuntion with our Friday Flyer on September 28, 2012. This interactive fee model shows the potential incremental EPS benefit for airlines in a scenario where every airline uses what we view as a fully optimized fee structure. The model allows for the changing of inputs where one can adjust fees and take rates (by airline) as desired to determine EPS accretion.
Plug in your expectations for gas prices, household net worth, and vehicles per licensed driver, and the regression model projects future U.S. light vehicle sales.
Plug in your assumptions for both intermodal and coal base rate increases to obtain the EPS benefit for UNP from legacy contract re-pricing alone in 2012.
Plug in your assumptions for annual Canpotex tonnage, pricing, and market share loss from CP to CNI to estimate the annualized EPS impact from the Canpotex contract up for bid in mid-2012. Out default assumptions reflect CNI gaining 25% of the business and a 10% decline in pricing from the added competition.
Plug in your assumptions for the debt and equity financing split, purchase multiple and revenue and margins for CGI and USAK. Default assumptions reflect a 50/50 split between debt and equity, a 5x trailing EBITDA purchase multiple ($135M equity buyout plus $114M existing USAK debt) and a USAK OR of 98.5% in 2012 implying about $0.16, or 18%, dilution to CGI’s C12 EPS.
Plug in assumptions for market returns, changes in discount rates, and expected return on plan assets for our transport companies affected by pensions. Full list includes CNI, CP, CSX, NSC, UNP, CNW, R, FDX, UPS, and UTIW. Default assumptions reflect disclosures from company 10-Ks and YTD market return estimates.
Plug in expectations for 2011 and 2012 coal volumes , yields, and margins, and the model projects the impacts to consolidated EPS for each railroad.
Plug in your assumptions for how much of YRCW’s long-haul and regional revenue and tonnage its competitors would receive in a potential shut down scenario. Default assumptions reflect previous YRCW customer survey results.
Plug in your expectations for potential hourly wage and pension concessions from ABFS’s unions and possible equity concession, and the model will project the expected cost savings and EPS impact.
Plug in your expectations for household net worth, relative new vehicle prices, lagged one-year average oil prices, and a vehicle park adjustment factor, and the model will project future annual U.S. auto sales for the next five years.