This month’s Macro examines March and April data. As shown on Slide 8, freight vols on avg. declined 2% y/y in March and are tracking up less than 1% y/y based on preliminary April data after growing close to 3% the 1st two months of the year. Moreover, our proprietary Seasonal Freight Index (Slide 7) has dipped back below 50 the past 2 months after accelerating sharply late last year and early this year.
Our 6th Annual Global Transport Conference will take place on Wednesday, May 22 and Thursday, May 23. This report is a guide for investors attending the conference, including a list of suggested questions to ask each company and a snapshot of our earnings models.
This weekly report presents the most recent views we are hearing from industry insiders and summarizes the research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) key takeaways, selected shipper comments; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight & logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
This weekly report presents the most recent views we are hearing from industry insiders and summarizes the research of Wolfe Trahan. Included are (1) key takeaways, selected shipper comments; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight & logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
This weekly report presents the most recent views we are hearing from industry insiders and summarizes the research of Wolfe Trahan. Included are (1) key takeaways, selected shipper comments; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight & logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
CNW reported ongoing 1Q EPS of $0.19 vs. our $0.23 est., Cons. of $0.26 and prior Cons. of $0.40 a month ago before CNW guided to weak LTL results. Total Rev., EBIT and EPS each declined 2%, 43%, and 58% y/y and ex. some large cost headwinds at LTL, total EBIT would have declined 18% y/y. LTL EBIT declined sharply y/y but beat our low expectations, while TL missed slightly and Menlo was significantly worse than our model.
This weekly report presents the most recent views we are hearing from industry insiders and summarizes the research of Wolfe Trahan. Included are (1) key takeaways, selected shipper comments; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight & logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
CNW provided 1Q guidance of lower than expected tonnage, in-line yields, and several one-time cost items expected to drag on 1Q profitability by $14M or $0.15/shr. We have reduced our 1Q EPS by $0.13 to $0.23 vs. prior Cons of $0.40 and $0.45 a year ago. We have not yet reduced our forward estimates beyond 1Q.
Transports Have Little Direct Government Exposure, But Sequestration Still Likely to Have Modest Negative Impact on Freight Volumes. We estimate AAWW and WAB have the most direct exposure to the U.S. gov’t at 30% and 20% of total rev., respectively. We suspect FDX and UPS also likely have higher-end gov’t exposure among the transports, but nobody else has more than 5% direct rev. exposure. Still, freight vols will likely be negatively impacted by sequestration, due in part to customs delays at major ports and the Canadian and Mexican borders.
This weekly report presents the most recent views we are hearing from industry insiders and summarizes the research of Wolfe Trahan. Included are (1) key takeaways, selected shipper comments; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight & logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.