Below please find a list of past conference calls and audio briefs from our research team. If you are a registered client and click on the audio brief the slides should also come-up. If you are a Wolfe Research client and can not access any of the links in our library, please contact ITSupport@WolfeResearch.com to reset your passcode.
Click through for a 9-minute audio brief update from Chris Senyek.
In this week’s audio update, we provide our views on the following:
- Why do we believe market concerns over Federal Reserve tapering are overdone?
- Why do recent trends in mortgage purchase applications suggest continued 2H strength in housing?
- Why are we cautious on emerging markets?
- Why are we still bullish on cyclicals?
- What are two of our favorite stock screens?
Click through for a 7-minute audio brief update from Chris Senyek.
Our chart book tracks the year-to-date share price performance of a basket of stocks relative to a sector neutral index return. Our favorite themes in 2013 include dividend strategies (initiations, increases, 2nd quintile yield & P/E), higher quality banks, financial institutions repurchasing stock below book value, spin-offs, large share repurchases and high free cash flow, NOL companies, companies, and short low earnings quality companies.
We just heard from over 75 public and private transportation companies at our Global Transport Conference last week, and today’s audio brief focuses on our top 10 takeaways for the freight transport stocks.
Overall, freight is telling a consistent story about decent but unexciting volume and general economic growth. Within that trend of consistency, we’ve just left a seasonal lull in March and April, and freight volumes are seasonally feeling much stronger the past 2 weeks with the late start to Spring, and this should be positive for near-term transport sentiment. We think KNX and SWFT (the latter not at our conference) are the best ways to play a near-term improvement in demand, and lower diesel fuel prices in 2Q should also help TL earnings in the near term.
The biggest takeaway from our conference is that airfreight volumes have started to improve again in April and May. Combined with lower ocean spot rates, we think the recent solid momentum for EXPD’s stock should continue, and stronger airfreight also seems positive for FDX and UTIW.
Among the rails, trends clearly seem more favorable in the West than the East with respect to coal, and we’re incrementally more positive on UNP and CP out of our conference.
We discuss these items and more, including an appendix with additional takeaways, in today’s audio brief and attached slides.
Utilities and Power Initiation Conference Call Replay
Steve Fleishman hosted this 45-minute conference call with takewaways from the PJM Auction
Key Topics on the Call Included:
Outcome of auction and impact on companies
Broader implications for power generation sector
Portfolio Strategy Conference Call Replay Hosted by Chris Senyek
May 17th, 2013
Portfolio Strategy Launch Conference Call
Buy Cyclicals in May and Go Away
This conference call summarizes Chris Senyek’s research launch on Portfolio Strategy, including his framework for analysis and views for the balance of 2013
Key Topics on the Call Included
Our Bullish Market View Through 2013 Year-End
The Case for a Strong Cyclical Bias
Our Framework: Combining the Best of Macro and Micro
This audio brief focuses on the Truckload stocks who have been large market laggards in recent years, which likely means when the turn comes, it should be big for these stocks!
Our thesis remains that despite very weak demand for Truckload over the past 4 years, capacity remains balanced—tight during seasonally strong months and looser during seasonally weaker periods. A solid improvement in demand driven by late state housing derivatives or inventory restocking or a change in regulation as we expect in July could easily spike pricing and send the truck stocks soaring.
While we don’t see an obvious change in the weak demand, relatively tight TL environment imminently, when it comes likely the stocks will rise by 25%-50% before we realize its upon us, so it’s critical for investors to position themselves now.
This audio brief examines the TL stocks underperformance and recent operating environment and why we believe this could change quickly later this year or in 2014. In the meantime we leave you with 4 Trucking stocks to own now—SWFT, R, SAIA and CHRW—that should outperform if the weak demand environment persists, but should benefit materially more with the rest of the group if and when TL pricing finally takes off.
Please click on the link for a short audio brief highlighting seven barriers to entry that have changed the threat of new entrants coming into the airline industry, in our view. These seven include: 1) high fuel prices, 2) fuel price volatility, 3) consolidation-driven scale, 4) dominant share of the top 15 domestic markets, 5) aircraft availability, 6) enhanced loyalty programs, and (less so) 7) pilot shortages.
Click through for a 12-minute audio brief update on Earnings Quality from Chris Senyek, with slides.
- Which companies have the lowest earnings quality and are most at risk for stock underperformance?
- Why do we believe the earnings quality factor will continue to work in the current market environment?
- What is the year-to-date performance of low earnings quality companies?
- How are investors using our earnings quality model and what are the components?
Utilities and Power Initiation Conference Call Replay
Steve Fleishman hosted this 45-minute conference call in conjunction with Wolfe Trahan’s initiation of coverage on the Utilities and Power sector
Key Topics on the Call Included:
Initiation on Utilities and Power at Wolfe Trahan
Industry Views
Top Stock Ideas
Transportation Conference Call Replay
Hosted and Moderated by Scott Group
Friday, March 8th, 2013
TL Demand and Pricing Set to Re-Accelerate in 2013
Guest Speakers on the Call Included Representatives from 4 Private Truckload Companies:
Gordon Trucking
U.S. Xpress
Schneider National
Crete Carrier Corp
Key Topics on the Call Included:
Update on Bid Season and Carrier Rate Expectations for 2013
Recent Demand and Spot Pricing Trends
Truckload Capacity Environment Today vs. Six Months Ago
Impact of Changes in Hours of Service on Productivity, Capacity and Driver Supply
What’s the Impact of Higher Fuel on 1Q Results?
Update on CapEx and Fleet Expectations