AAWW’s Analyst Day on Thurs., 5/30, included presentations from senior mgmt and a tour of Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner production facility in Charleston, SC. AAWW noted signs of improving airfreight demand, expectations for new ACMI contracts and affirmed its full-year C13 EPS guidance, but provided no long-term guidance. Relative to previous Analyst Days, the biggest changes to us are AAWW’s focus on growing its Titan dry-leasing business and its commitment to buying back stock.
This month’s Macro examines March and April data. As shown on Slide 8, freight vols on avg. declined 2% y/y in March and are tracking up less than 1% y/y based on preliminary April data after growing close to 3% the 1st two months of the year. Moreover, our proprietary Seasonal Freight Index (Slide 7) has dipped back below 50 the past 2 months after accelerating sharply late last year and early this year.
This weekly report presents the most recent views we are hearing from industry insiders and summarizes the research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) key takeaways, selected shipper comments; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight & logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
This weekly report presents the most recent views we are hearing from industry insiders and summarizes the research of Wolfe Trahan. Included are (1) key takeaways, selected shipper comments; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight & logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
This weekly report presents the most recent views we are hearing from industry insiders and summarizes the research of Wolfe Trahan. Included are (1) key takeaways, selected shipper comments; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight & logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
AAWW reported 1Q adj. EPS $0.07 or 47% above Cons. but EPS still fell more than 55% y/y. Rev. grew 5% y/y, but pre-tax margins were cut in half despite lower than expected maintenance expense which boosted 1Q EPS $0.20 relative to AAWW’s guidance.
Transports Have Little Direct Government Exposure, But Sequestration Still Likely to Have Modest Negative Impact on Freight Volumes. We estimate AAWW and WAB have the most direct exposure to the U.S. gov’t at 30% and 20% of total rev., respectively. We suspect FDX and UPS also likely have higher-end gov’t exposure among the transports, but nobody else has more than 5% direct rev. exposure. Still, freight vols will likely be negatively impacted by sequestration, due in part to customs delays at major ports and the Canadian and Mexican borders.
This weekly report presents the most recent views we are hearing from industry insiders and summarizes the research of Wolfe Trahan. Included are (1) key takeaways, selected shipper comments; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight & logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
This weekly report presents the most recent views we are hearing from industry insiders and summarizes the research of Wolfe Trahan. Included are (1) key takeaways, selected shipper comments; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight & logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
This weekly report presents the most recent views we are hearing from industry insiders and summarizes the research of Wolfe Trahan. Included are (1) key takeaways, selected shipper comments; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight & logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.